Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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301 FXUS61 KCLE 121951 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 351 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will become dominant tonight and persist through Saturday night. A warm front will move north across the area on Sunday before stalling across the central Great Lakes region on Monday and Tuesday before moving southeast as a cold front on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Isolated thunderstorms have developed west of I-71 and are primarily driven by enhanced diurnal instability with CAPE values approaching 1500-2000 J/kg. Primary threat through the afternoon with any storms will be heavy rain and gusty winds, although there is a non-zero potential for small hail as well. By tonight, high pressure become dominant and showers should end as a drier airmass aloft begins to move east. A weak low-level inversion is forecast to develop across the far northern corners of the CWA, which coupled with weak winds overnight, could result in patchy dense fog developing. Highest confidence in fog development is in NW OH and NE OH and NW PA, along with any areas that it rains this afternoon/evening. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 60s. Fog will quickly lift Saturday morning, resulting in a rather pleasant Saturday across the area. There is a non-zero chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms developing again Saturday afternoon/evening as instability increasing throughout the day and an area of enhanced moisture traverse areas along and east of I71, where the best chance will be. There is a non-zero chance for areas west of the corridor, but with limited moisture it will be more difficult to get showers/storms. Highs on Saturday will climb into the mid to upper 80s, with the exception of the immediate lakeshore which will only climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. On Saturday night, a strong low-level inversion will move into the area and set up the potential for more widespread, dense fog to develop across the area. Again the best chances will be in areas that receive rainfall, but with the inversion wouldn`t be surprised to at least see patchy dense fog across the entire CWA. Overnight lows on Saturday will drop into mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Active weather pattern through the short term period as northwest flow dominates the Great Lakes region through Monday night. Ridging with hot/humid conditions will build northward through the Ohio Valley into the local area. Modest instability builds into the local area Sunday and increases a bit Monday, however very unstable conditions upstream in the upper Midwest will allow for MCS development that will track towards the area during the period. Low confidence in timing and details with this type of ring of fire pattern, however the best chances for thunderstorm activity to move through the area look to be during the day Sunday, which may be in the form of decaying activity that sustains or re-intensifies through across the area. Additional upstream development may manifest Sunday night that may impact the area again during the day on Monday. This would be supported with a bit more instability locally. Have maintained chance pops during this period given the uncertainty with the details. Highs Sunday and Monday will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with Monday being a degree or two warmer than Sunday. Lows Sunday night into Monday night will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Pattern changes begins Tuesday into Wednesday as upper low/trough digs south into the Great Lakes region, forcing a cold front southeast across the local area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will bring showers and storms to the area, with the best chances in the Tuesday afternoon/night time frame, with likely pops reflected in the forecast. Front will move south into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure builds into the area through Friday, providing cooler and drier conditions. After one last day of heat, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday, highs will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR conditions with an isolated chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, especially east of I-71 so opted to handle this potential with VCTS as confidence in exact development location remains low through this afternoon. At terminals impacted by any showers/storms, visibilities may briefly be reduced to MVFR, but should quickly rebound. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through this evening and into the early overnight hours with light and variable winds expected. By late tonight/early Saturday morning, a weak low level inversion is forecast to become established over the area, resulting in the potential of patchy fog. The best chance of fog is across NW OH and far NE OH/NW PA (inland from Lake Erie) and for any areas that receive precipitation this afternoon. Have opted to decrease KTOL to IFR, KFDY to MVFR, and KYNG to IFR conditions from near 8-13Z. Confidence is lower elsewhere and thus did not include it with this update. By mid-Saturday morning, conditions should all rebound to VFR and light and variable winds will persist. Outlook...Periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR may be possible this Sunday through Tuesday. && .MARINE... High pressure over the weekend will keep conditions quiet on the lake. Light winds tonight through Saturday night will increase a bit out of the southwest Sunday and Monday before a cold front moves towards the lake from the northwest on Tuesday. Southwest winds will ramp up a bit Tuesday, perhaps in the 15-20 kt range, before becoming northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday with the front pushing south of the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Greenawalt