![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
753 FXUS61 KCLE 142339 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 739 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will settle across the Great Lakes through Tuesday before pushing southeast across the area as a cold front Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday night through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 7:35 PM Update... Remnants of a decaying MCS are continuing to move east across the region this evening. General thought is that this convection will persist for the next 1-2 hours but weaken as it enters a less favorable environment. There remains a lot of uncertainty with the forecast over the next 12-24 hours. We will continue to watch how a cluster of thunderstorms over eastern Iowa evolves while moving toward the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions overnight tonight. Previous discussion... Scattered showers have developed across NE OH and NW PA and ahead of an MCS that is approaching the CWA from the west. The strongest convection associated with the MCS is following the instability gradient and will miss the local area to the southwest, but it`s possible that the developing convection to the north congeals into the line and scrapes southwestern zones that are currently in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and a Slight Risk for severe weather. A boundary is currently lifting northeast across the watch area, which could serve as a focus for convergence and convective initiation as the MCS tracks eastward this afternoon into this evening. Additional scattered convection may develop through early this evening, as already evident in Lucas County. The big question is how widespread the convection will be and how much eastern locations destabilize over the next few hours - if destabilization occurs, there`s potential for more widespread and stronger thunderstorms since there will be boundaries in place. As of now, however, there is quite a bit of CIN and destabilization is struggling. Unfortunately, CAMs are not handling the current situation well, so will need to rely heavily on mesoanalysis, radar, and satellite trends and adjust the forecast as necessary. While the best instability will be in western zones, there will be sufficient buoyancy and moisture for damaging winds and heavy downpours within any thunderstorms that develop. Shear is a bit marginal (20-30 knots) but there is just enough for a low-end tornado and hail threat. It`s safe to say that the forecast for overnight and through the remainder of the near term period also remains uncertain and will depend on how things shake out this afternoon and evening. Another MCS will likely approach the area from the northwest late tonight into early Monday morning with another round of convection possible Monday night. How much each line holds together as it crosses into the CWA will depend on instability and any boundaries left behind from previous storms. Can`t rule out strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall with any storms through Monday night. A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place for the entire area Monday with a Slight Risk clipping the I-75 corridor. It will be quite warm and humid throughout the period, although maximum temps Monday will depend on cloud cover and precipitation. Highs may reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s expected. Heat indices may very briefly touch 100 degrees, but not confident enough to do a heat headline since any cloud cover or showers/storms will result in cooler temps/heat indices. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s each night. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Active weather pattern will continue to impact the area through the short term period as a northwest flow pattern remains established with areas of shortwave upper level energy advecting along the broad upper level trough. Initially Tuesday morning, remnants of an overnight MCS may continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, although with limited instability at that time, right now only expecting some gusty winds and heavy rainfall. As stated a plethora of times in previous discussions, there is a potential for this forecast to change/evolve and will be highly dependent on how mesoscale features develop upstream and the strength of the system when it arrives to northern Ohio. By Tuesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area from the northwest with stronger synoptic forcing arriving as well. A mid- level shortwave and LLJ of 40-50 knots will act to enhance storm development. High instability, increasing shear, and a very moist airmass with dewpoints in the 70s will aid in enhancement from the mesoscale aspect, especially by mid to late afternoon ahead of the front. In addition to the potential for storm development, PWAT values in excess of 2", deep warm cloud layers, and nearly parallel storm motion to the boundary will create very heavy and efficient rainfall. This may lead to localized flooding concerns, especially in urban areas and where training storms develop. Maintained the heavy rain wording for the forecast on Tuesday and Tuesday night to account for this threat. To highlight these risks on Tuesday and into Tuesday night, SPC has issued a Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe weather with strong, damaging winds the greatest threat. WPC has issued a Slight Risk ERO for the entire area. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, models suggest the cold front moving across the area will begin to slow. Uncertainty in how much it will slow and overall timing remains, so opted to increase PoPs across the eastern tier of counties throughout the day on Wednesday. Giving the weakened environment, not thinking much will remain severe, but opted to maintain chance thunder at this time. Overnight on Wednesday, the front should settle to the southeast of the area, allowing high pressure to build in, breaking the active weather trend and allowing for dry conditions to return. Temperatures on Tuesday will be quite warm and muggy with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. This will result in heat index values climbing into the mid to upper 90s. As the front slow meanders southeast, overnight temperatures on Tuesday night will be a bit milder in the northwestern counties, dropping into the mid 60s, but elsewhere they will likely only fall into the upper 60s to low 70s again. A cool off is expected Wednesday when highs only climb into the low 80s during the day and lows fall into the upper 50s to low 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For the entire long term period, high pressure will be the dominant driving force of weather across the region, resulting in another prolonged period without rainfall with cooler temperatures. Highs on Thursday and Friday will only climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, before warming back into the mid to upper 80s for this weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Remnant convection continues to move across eastern terminals (KCAK/KYNG/KERI) this evening while gradually weakening over the next 1-2 hours. Mainly dry forecast through much of the overnight hours before another MCS currently situated over eastern Iowa this evening moves toward terminals early Monday morning. There remains low confidence in coverage and placement of showers and thunderstorms associated with this MCS so for now kept VCTS/VCSH mentions in the TAF through much of the day Monday. Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period outside of any convection that occurs over a terminal which may reduce cigs/vis to MVFR/IFR at times. Southwest winds 6-10 knots continue this evening and overnight. By Monday afternoon, winds turn more west while increasing to 8-12 knots. Higher winds and gusts will occur in any thunderstorm. Outlook...Mainly VFR outside of occasional thunderstorms through Tuesday evening. && .MARINE... Southwest flow of 10-15 knots is expected to persist through Tuesday. Winds may occasionally approach 20 knots on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the east. Timing of the onset of these winds remains uncertain given the overall uncertainty with the progression of the system the next few days. With that being said, cannot rule out a potential short fused Small Craft Advisory being needed for Tuesday. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, a cold front will move south of the lake, shifting winds to west-northwest at 5-10 knots behind the boundary as high pressure builds east. These winds will persist through at least Friday before becoming more northeasterly this weekend. It is worth noting the potential for multiple rounds of strong to severe storms today through Tuesday. Where these storms do develop, strong, damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. In areas impacted by these storms, winds and waves may locally increase and briefly cause hazardous marine conditions. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maines NEAR TERM...Iverson/Maines SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...Campbell