451
FXUS62 KCHS 091933
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
333 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move over the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, retreating back inland as weak low pressure develops
over the Deep South Thursday into Friday. Bermuda high pressure
becomes reestablished with troughing inland this weekend into
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A trough of low pressure will linger across the area through
tonight. Aloft, ridge axis still exists over the Southeast in
between a trough to the west and weakening wave over the
Atlantic. Deep moisture will remain in place as indicated by
PWats well over 2 inches. Radar late this afternoon has shown
surprisingly little activity overall. There should be a bit
more development over the next couple of hours, before the bulk
of convection diminishes later this evening. Severe weather
threat is low, but locally heavy rainfall is possible with slow
storm motions. Rainfall totals of 1-2" are the most likely with
isolated totals greater than 3". Otherwise, seeing several
observation sites with heat indices in the 105-109F range. Heat
Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM.

Rain chances will decrease through the night with any activity
becoming more focused over the coastal waters and near the
coast. Low temperatures stay mild in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday is shaping up to be similar to Tuesday, with near-Heat
Advisory warmth and isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly
focused in the afternoon. Ridging aloft and very weak lapse rates
will once again limit coverage and intensity of storms, but some
localized downpours and a few stronger storms can`t be ruled out.
Dew points could mix out into the lower to mid 70s across inland SE
GA Wednesday afternoon, with heat index values likely maxing out
around 105, but dew points still in the mid 70s to near 80 closer to
the coast will again allow heat index values to reach near the 108F
Heat Advisory threshold. ahead of and along the resultant sea breeze
front.

A weak cold front is expected to push into the area from the west
very late Wednesday night into Thursday, working drier air in from
the west and limiting POPs across inland southeast GA. However,
sufficient low level moisture persists along and east of I-95, with
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms prevailing,
especially along the Low Country coast, later Thursday through
Thursday night as the moisture intersects an H5 vort max
retrograding back toward the coast. Other severe threat looks low
during this time, but the heavy rainfall potential requires further
monitoring as some training of storms is possible into eastern SC
Thursday night.

The focus for greater moisture content Friday remains over the Low
Country as weak low pressure remains over the deep south. Expect the
overall precip story to follow a more diurnal trend, with scattered
to widespread showers and storms developing along and inland of the
sea breeze in the afternoon. Continue to monitor forecast updates
for more on the severe threat, which will be dependent on morning
cloud and shower coverage, with the heavy rainfall potential mainly
east of I-95 requiring monitoring as well as the band of greater
deep moisture could remain near the coast through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will gradually build over the eastern United
States Saturday through Tuesday. A relatively typical summertime
coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected with Bermuda
high pressure setting up offshore and general troughing prevailing
inland. Temperatures will steadily increase during the period, with
highs in the upper 90s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR is expected through 18z Wednesday. Flight
restrictions will be possible if any showers/thunderstorms
directly impact the terminals this afternoon or early evening.
Precip coverage will diminish overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms may produce brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds early will become more west to southwest overnight.
Speeds will be less than 15 knots with seas 2-3 feet.

Wednesday through Sunday: Moderate S to SW flow prevails Wednesday
before the gradient weakens Thursday as a weak front approaches the
waters. Bermuda high re-establishes itself Friday into the weekend,
with summer-like moderate S to SW flow prevailing and gusty
conditions in the afternoon (into evening) nearshore as the sea
breeze develops. Weak SE medium period swell and minimal local
windswell will combine to keep seas 2-3 ft through the period.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/ETM
MARINE...CEB/ETM