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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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828 FXUS62 KCHS 141728 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 128 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move slowly south of the area early morning. High pressure will then build from the north into late week. Another cold front may approach the area early next week, then remain nearby through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The cold front is seen on surface analysis and satellite stretching from just south of the forecast/warning area into southern Alabama, central Mississippi and near the ArklaTex, with northeast winds in its wake, as well as some upper 60s dew points north of I-26 in South Carolina. Isolated to scattered convection will continue to form along the sea breeze, with the higher PoPs of 30-40% in southeast Georgia where there is higher CAPE and better moisture convergence. Highs will be generally in the 80s, with some lower 90s. Gusty northeast to east winds will impact the shoreline areas, with a modest gradient in response to high pressure building from the north and getting a boost from the sea breeze. Tonight: Any showers/storms that do develop will fizzle this evening with quiet weather through the night. Cooler nighttime temperatures with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, to the middle 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday and Friday: Aloft, a broad trough will shift offshore, becoming more distant across the Atlantic while deep layer ridging extends across the Deep South and Southeast. This will help drive drier air across the region, with PWATs decreasing to around 1.5 inches and a light northeast wind maintaining mostly rain-free conditions across the entire area Thursday, and likely through Friday despite a more direct onshore wind returning locally. Temps will also be slightly cooler despite mid-lvl ridging and full days of sun, while overnight temps will become noticeably cooler as stronger radiational cooling takes place under clear/mostly clear skies and light/calm winds. In general, highs should range in the mid-upper 80s, warming a degree or two higher on Friday. Lows should dip into the mid-upper 60s inland and low-mid 70s closer to the coast. Saturday: Aloft, the mid-upper ridge will start to shift offshore as a deep low tracks across the Great Lakes region and toward the Northeast during the weekend. Troughing will take place south of the feature, with h5 vort energy rounding its southern edge toward the Southeast. This should bring a few showers and/or thunderstorms well inland as a light southerly wind advects deeper moisture back to the region, but mainly late day as upstream convection drifts into western most zones before nightfall. Afternoon highs should be slightly warmer than the previous day, generally peaking in the upper 80s near the coast to low-mid 90s inland, warmest across Southeast Georgia. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front extending south from a parent low passing across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states is anticipated to approach the Southeast United States early next week, potentially stalling nearby into mid-week before another mid-lvl trough forces it further offshore heading into the second half of the week. The pattern should favor more unsettled weather conditions Sunday through Wednesday while the front and h5 shortwave energy provide sufficient forcing across ample moisture. Temps should be within a few degrees of normal for this time of year with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the low-mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail through 18Z Thursday. The sea breeze boundary will generate isolated to scattered SHRA and a few TSRA this afternoon and early evening. However, coverage is less than recent days, so nothing more than VCSH is shown at KCHS and KSAV, with no mention at KJZI. Unlike the past two mornings, there doesn`t appear to be any chance for low stratus Thursday morning as the air mass drier than before. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will likely prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Saturday. Brief flight restrictions come early next week to all terminals as a front brings showers/thunderstorms to the region Sunday. && .MARINE... This afternoon: The gradient is a bit tighter behind the cold front than previously forecast, so we now have winds up near a solid 20 kt. Seas 3-4 feet most areas. There can still be a few t-storms due to a cold front just south of the marine area. Northeasterly winds will dominate across the coastal waters tonight with a touch of gustiness (around 20 knots). Seas will average 3 to 4 feet, possibly touching 5 feet in the outer Georgia waters. Wednesday: No highlights expected as a backdoor cold front pushes south of the waters through this period. Expect east- northeast winds of 10-15 knots with some gusts to near 20 knots possible. Seas generally 3 to 4 feet. Thursday through Sunday: High pressure will build across the Southeast United States Thursday into Friday while Tropical Cyclone Ernesto tracks northward far offshore across the Atlantic. Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels into Friday morning, with east-northeast winds averaging around 10- 15 kt along with a few gusts up to 20 kt on Thursday becoming more easterly on Friday. However, seas are expected to build through late week due to increasing swells associated with Ernesto, which could lead to Small Craft Advisories across offshore Georgia waters Friday and Saturday for 6-7 ft seas, and potentially across nearshore waters Friday night into early Saturday with 6 ft seas making it as close as 10 nm from the shore. 6 ft seas could linger across offshore Georgia waters into Sunday, but conditions should improve sufficiently to where Small Craft Advisories are less likely with south-southwest winds between 10-15 kt and seas generally between 3- 5 ft. Rip Currents: So far today we`ve had a report of 2 rip currents at Tybee, although they were both considered weak. The risk for rip currents will likely increase late this week, as swells from distant Tropical Cyclone Ernesto impact the beaches. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION... MARINE...