399
FXUS62 KCHS 061729
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
129 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Chantal will weaken over eastern North
Carolina today as the system moves away from the area. Weak
high pressure will then rebuild across the area and prevail
through the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-day update: TD Chantal was trekking north across the SC/NC
state line. Cloud cover and bands of light rain and drizzle will
pass over the SC Lowcountry early this afternoon. This
afternoon, convection should deepen, resulting in at least
isolated thunderstorms within pockets of scattered showers. The
cloud cover, rounds of light rainfall, and west-northwest winds
should keep highs across the SC Lowcountry limited to the mid to
upper 80s, peaking around 90 across SE GA.

Tonight: Any lingering isolated shower/tstm activity will
dissipate early in the evening as Chantal weakens and moves
farther away from the area. Some lingering feeder bands could
redevelop over the Atlantic late which could brush the upper
portions of Charleston County; however, most areas should remain
rain-free through the night. Lows will range from the lower 70s
well inland to around 80 at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Remnants of Chantal will continue to pull northward away from
the region Monday, with the surface pattern to then feature high
pressure offshore with a trough of low pressure inland. Shower
and thunderstorm coverage will be scant Monday (POPs ~10- 25%),
as the axis of highest moisture shifts northward. Model
soundings also indicate subsidence in the wake of the departing
low Monday, becoming more subtle by Tuesday. Therefore there
could be slightly greater shower/tstm coverage Tuesday
afternoon, increasing for Wednesday afternoon as the area
transitions into a seasonable pattern. High temperatures will
jump back in the mid to upper 90s Monday and Tuesday with mostly
sunny skies forecast. With accompanying dew points nearing the
mid 70s, heat indices in a few spots could make a run for Heat
Advisory criteria (108F degrees), mainly Tuesday. Both nights
will be mild with min overnight temperatures only in the mid to
upper 70s. Wednesday should see highs about 1-2 degrees cooler
with increased convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak flow within subtle ridging aloft will persist along with
no discernible synoptic features. Therefore, the forecast will
be dominated by a typical summertime sea breeze pattern, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day especially
in the afternoon and early evening when instability is
maximized. Highs are forecast to remain in the low/mid 90s
inland of the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prior to the 18Z TAFs, KCLX detected a band of light showers
across the I-26 corridor, tracking towards the coast. These
showers may pass over KCHS and KJZI between 19-23Z, highlighted
with TEMPOs. In the meantime, MVFR ceilings across KCHS and KJZI
may linger through much of this afternoon. As TD Chantal weakens
and tracks well north of the region this evening, restrictive
ceilings should dissipate and winds should shift from the SW.
Conditions overnight into Monday morning are forecast to remain
VFR with SW winds between 5 to 10 kts.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief ceiling/vsby restrictions
possible due to scattered showers and thunderstorms closer to
mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Conditions will steadily improve across the waters today
as TD Chantal moves farther inland. Small Craft Advisories have
been canceled.

Tonight: Southwest winds will persist in the wake of Chantal
with speeds averaging 10-15 kt over the Georgia waters and 15-20
kt over the South Carolina waters. Seas will subside 2-4 ft,
except 3-5 ft over the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg.

Monday through Friday: Relatively benign conditions will
persist through the period as winds settle into a SW flow with
the Tropical Storm, or the remnants of, Chantal located to the
north and high pressure to the east. No marine
concerns/headlines expected during the period with winds 15 kt
or less and seas 2-4 ft.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk for rip currents exists for all
area beaches due to residual swell. Lingering swell will result
in a Moderate Risk of rip currents for the Charleston/Colleton
County beaches.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...