828
FXUS62 KCHS 141728
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
128 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly south of the area early morning.
High pressure will then build from the north into late week.
Another cold front may approach the area early next week, then
remain nearby through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front is seen on surface analysis and satellite
stretching from just south of the forecast/warning area into
southern Alabama, central Mississippi and near the ArklaTex,
with northeast winds in its wake, as well as some upper 60s dew
points north of I-26 in South Carolina.

Isolated to scattered convection will continue to form along the
sea breeze, with the higher PoPs of 30-40% in southeast Georgia
where there is higher CAPE and better moisture convergence.

Highs will be generally in the 80s, with some lower 90s. Gusty
northeast to east winds will impact the shoreline areas, with a
modest gradient in response to high pressure building from the
north and getting a boost from the sea breeze.

Tonight: Any showers/storms that do develop will fizzle this
evening with quiet weather through the night. Cooler nighttime
temperatures with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, to
the middle 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday and Friday: Aloft, a broad trough will shift offshore,
becoming more distant across the Atlantic while deep layer ridging
extends across the Deep South and Southeast. This will help drive
drier air across the region, with PWATs decreasing to around 1.5
inches and a light northeast wind maintaining mostly rain-free
conditions across the entire area Thursday, and likely through
Friday despite a more direct onshore wind returning locally. Temps
will also be slightly cooler despite mid-lvl ridging and full days
of sun, while overnight temps will become noticeably cooler as
stronger radiational cooling takes place under clear/mostly clear
skies and light/calm winds. In general, highs should range in the
mid-upper 80s, warming a degree or two higher on Friday. Lows should
dip into the mid-upper 60s inland and low-mid 70s closer to the
coast.

Saturday: Aloft, the mid-upper ridge will start to shift offshore as
a deep low tracks across the Great Lakes region and toward the
Northeast during the weekend. Troughing will take place south of the
feature, with h5 vort energy rounding its southern edge toward the
Southeast. This should bring a few showers and/or thunderstorms well
inland as a light southerly wind advects deeper moisture back to the
region, but mainly late day as upstream convection drifts into
western most zones before nightfall. Afternoon highs should be
slightly warmer than the previous day, generally peaking in the
upper 80s near the coast to low-mid 90s inland, warmest across
Southeast Georgia.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front extending south from a parent low passing across the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states is anticipated to approach the
Southeast United States early next week, potentially stalling nearby
into mid-week before another mid-lvl trough forces it further
offshore heading into the second half of the week. The pattern
should favor more unsettled weather conditions Sunday through
Wednesday while the front and h5 shortwave energy provide sufficient
forcing across ample moisture. Temps should be within a few degrees
of normal for this time of year with highs generally in the upper
80s to lower 90s and lows in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail through 18Z Thursday.

The sea breeze boundary will generate isolated to scattered
SHRA and a few TSRA this afternoon and early evening. However,
coverage is less than recent days, so nothing more than VCSH is
shown at KCHS and KSAV, with no mention at KJZI.

Unlike the past two mornings, there doesn`t appear to be any
chance for low stratus Thursday morning as the air mass drier
than before.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will likely prevail at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Saturday. Brief flight restrictions
come early next week to all terminals as a front brings
showers/thunderstorms to the region Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
This afternoon: The gradient is a bit tighter behind the cold
front than previously forecast, so we now have winds up near a
solid 20 kt. Seas 3-4 feet most areas. There can still be a few
t-storms due to a cold front just south of the marine area.

Northeasterly winds will dominate across the coastal waters
tonight with a touch of gustiness (around 20 knots). Seas will
average 3 to 4 feet, possibly touching 5 feet in the outer
Georgia waters.

Wednesday: No highlights expected as a backdoor cold front
pushes south of the waters through this period. Expect east-
northeast winds of 10-15 knots with some gusts to near 20 knots
possible. Seas generally 3 to 4 feet.

Thursday through Sunday: High pressure will build across the
Southeast United States Thursday into Friday while Tropical Cyclone
Ernesto tracks northward far offshore across the Atlantic.
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
into Friday morning, with east-northeast winds averaging around 10-
15 kt along with a few gusts up to 20 kt on Thursday becoming more
easterly on Friday. However, seas are expected to build through late
week due to increasing swells associated with Ernesto, which could
lead to Small Craft Advisories across offshore Georgia waters Friday
and Saturday for 6-7 ft seas, and potentially across nearshore
waters Friday night into early Saturday with 6 ft seas making it as
close as 10 nm from the shore. 6 ft seas could linger across
offshore Georgia waters into Sunday, but conditions should improve
sufficiently to where Small Craft Advisories are less likely with
south-southwest winds between 10-15 kt and seas generally between 3-
5 ft.

Rip Currents: So far today we`ve had a report of 2 rip currents
at Tybee, although they were both considered weak. The risk for
rip currents will likely increase late this week, as swells
from distant Tropical Cyclone Ernesto impact the beaches.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...