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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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755 FXUS62 KCHS 161419 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1019 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend. A cold front will push across the area early next week, then remain nearby through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The morning composite analysis reveals upper level ridging stretching from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf coast and surface high pressure draped along the entire east coast...with Hurricane Ernesto around 850 miles off the southeast coast moving northeastward toward Bermuda. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will remain in control of our weather through tonight, maintaining our slightly cooler and less humid conditions. The forecast soundings show strong mid-level capping/(CINH) and PWat just 70-80% of normal. Thus, the forecast will continue to advertise quiet weather through tonight. Highs today will run just a touch warmer than Thursday...87-91F with cooler readings along the coast. Lows tonight will run from the upper 60s to lower 70s, warmer along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday: At the sfc, high pressure will remain along the coast through the day. Given light south winds, dewpoints may increase to around 70 degrees during the afternoon. However, a lingering H7 inversion should provide enough of a capping inversion to limit convection. A rogue shower is not completely out of the realm of possibilities, but guidance consensus favors dry conditions. The current forecast reflects a 10-15% chance of precipitation. High temperatures will reach the low 90s away from the coast and overnight lows will range in the low to mid 70s. Sunday and Monday: A cold front will slowly approach from the west through the day Sunday. The sea breeze is expected to drift inland during the mid to late afternoon, resulting in dewpoints to climb into the mid 70s. A broad area of deeper moisture will push across the area ahead of the front Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop between the sea breeze and the approaching cold front. The greatest coverage looks to occur late Sunday into Monday as a large upper trough digs into the Southeast which will provide enhancement of lifting mechanisms. The cold front is currently timed to reach the Atlantic coast Monday morning. Guidance indicates that the environment along and ahead of the cold front will feature CAPE around 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 30 kts. This environment could support a few organized storm clusters or lines, resulting in strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. It is possible that a couple of severe storms could occur late Sunday night, beyond midnight. The rest of the day Monday should remain mostly dry behind the front. High temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 90s Sunday. On Monday, highs should be a few degrees less than Sunday due to the (likely) passage of the front. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Aloft, the large trough extending from extreme eastern Canada down to the Florida Keys will sit nearly stationary through the middle of next week. The sfc pattern will feature building high pressure to the north as the cold front becomes stationary off the coast. This pattern should yield light east winds, allowing a sea breeze to develop each afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures should range near normal each day; in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals through 12Z Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: A cold front is forecast to impact the region late this weekend/early next week, bringing the risk of brief flight restrictions within showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Long period swell energy from Hurricane Ernesto will increase across the coastal waters today with seas building to 4-6 ft across the nearshore waters, 5-7 ft across the outer GA waters. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the outer GA waters and the South Carolina nearshore waters accordingly. Otherwise, east to northeast winds between 5-10 kts are expected today, becoming light Friday night. Saturday through Wednesday: Seas should decrease to 3-5 ft with light and variable winds early Saturday with high pressure in place. Saturday night into Sunday winds and seas will gradually increase ahead of an approaching cold front that is expected to push across the local waters Monday. Winds could surge from the SW to around 20 kts with gusts 20-25 kt Sunday night. In addition, sea could build to around 6ft across portions of the outer GA waters Sunday. Conditions will improve throughout the day Monday with seas dropping to 2-3 ft, and winds shifting out the north around 10-15 kt for Tuesday and Wednesday. High Surf: Long period swell and seas building to 6 feet or better might lead to breaker heights approaching 5 feet along the South Carolina coast later today into tonight. Recent webcams along the coast showing breakers around 3 feet, with an occasional 4 footer. No High Surf Advisory planned at this time, but we`ll continue to monitor. Rip Currents: Long period swell (13 to 15 seconds) from Hurricane Ernesto have reached the forecast area and will continue to impact the southeast coast through the weekend. This will produce a high risk of rip currents at all area beaches today and again Saturday. The threat for rip currents could persist into Sunday as well. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ350-352. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ374. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...BRM LONG TERM...BRM AVIATION...Adam/BRM MARINE...