272
FXUS61 KCAR 141907
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
307 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today. Several weak
troughs will cross the area Monday through Tuesday. A more
robust cold front will move into the region on Wednesday and
exit on Thursday. High pressure returns on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level trof will exit the region tonight. High-res
models show clearing skies and calm winds throughout the night.
With the calm winds and warm, humid conditions, another round of
patchy fog is expected, mainly along the coast. For Monday, a
large area of 500mb shortwave energy will follow the mid level
trof from SW to NE across the western parts of the region. The
main concern will be the showers and thunderstorms. Upper air
models soundings are inconsistent with the amount CAPE expected
across the region, but some agreement in the location of the
higher amount being in the western border and the Central
Highlands. QPF models show the chances of storms moving further
E increasing into the evening. Though shear is fairly weak, low
and mid level lapse rates are fairly steep, which could bring
gusty winds. The onshore flow will keep stable air of Coastal
Downeast, keeping thunderstorms out of this area. In addition,
warm moist air moving along with the shortwave, will bring temps
into the low 80s in the north and upper 80s in the south. Heat
indices will be in the low 90s during the afternoon for
Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The short term period likely to see zonal flow with s/wv rippling
through the flow at times with very little in the way of organized
forcing. Hv continued with theme of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday with the warmest temps of the week. This,
in combination with fairly high dewpoints of around 70 looks to
produce heat indices, or feels like temperatures, in the m/u 90s
over interior Downeast and will likely lead to heat advisories
during the warmest part of the afternoon.

Upper low will be moving into ern Canada on Wednesday with pw values
approaching 1.5-1.75 inches over Downeast. CAPES likely to range
between 500-1000 joules over srn areas on Wednesday afternoon. 0-6km
shear ranges from 30-40kts with iffy mid-level lapse rates. Cannot
rule out an isolated severe storm on Wednesday along a potential pre-
frontal trough but still plenty of time to look at the chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All guidance and their ensembles advertise cold front moving through
Wednesday night with storms possible over Downeast areas in the
evening before shifting over the waters late. As H5 trof crosses the
area on Thu afternoon cannot rule out another chc for tstms, mainly
over wrn areas closer to the cold pool.

Following fropa Thursday morning dewpoints will be on the decrease
dropping into the 50s acrs the north during the day, with only
lwr 60s dewpoints over Downeast on Friday. Temps through the end
of next week likely to be right around normal as high pressure
noses in and then builds to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions tonight and Monday for all terminals.
Possible patchy fog for BHB, but low confidence kept it out of
the TAFs. Light and variable winds tonight, then SW winds 5-10
kts Monday.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night...Mainly VFR, though cannot rule out low MVFR/IFR in
fog late, especially at terminals that received rain. SW 5-10kts.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR though may see MVFR/IFR in storms over northern
terminals. Early fog may bring IFR to BGR and BHB. SW 5-15kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR early lowering to MVFR/IFR on
Wednesday. Showers and storms possible Wednesday afternoon. SW 5-
15kts.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. SW 5,
shifting to WNW 5kts late.

Thursday-Friday...VFR. WNW 5-10kts.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for
tonight and Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels through
the middle of the week. Seas increase toward 5ft over the outer
waters Wednesday into Thursday evening. SW winds will likely
remain below 20kts under very stable airmass. Warm air over the
cold waters will keep visibilities reduced in fog early in the
week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...LaFlash/Buster
Marine...LaFlash/Buster