106
FXUS61 KCAR 130110
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
910 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes overnight.
A series of surface trofs will then move across the region
Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9:10 PM Update: Diurnally driven showers have for the most part
dissipated. There are still a few showers on the back side of
an upper trough moving south toward the Saint John Valley, but
they will likely fall apart before reaching the area based on
the latest radar trends. Otherwise, a fairly quiet night with a
clear to partly cloudy sky and seasonable lows in the 50s. Just
a few minor tweaks for late this evening based on the latest
radar trends and observations.

Previous Discussion...
An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes tonight.
Isolated/scattered showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm,
will occur early tonight. Showers/thunderstorms will then
dissipate with the upper trof exiting along with the loss of
diurnal heating. Partly cloudy/mostly clear skies are expected
overnight. A disturbance moving around the exiting system helps
re-establish upper level troffing across the region Tuesday. A
surface trof will also cross the region Tuesday, while a cold
front moves westward across New Brunswick toward the Maine/New
Brunswick border. With diurnal instability, expect isolated
afternoon showers/thunderstorms across mostly northern and
eastern portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, expect
mostly/partly sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the lower to mid 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s
Downeast. High temperatures Tuesday will range from around 80 to
the lower 80s across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level trough will remain in place through Thursday,
allowing several shortwaves to rotate through the pattern. The
strongest of these will be Wednesday afternoon, when a vort max
will move into the base of the trough as it moves southward
across the forecast area. The greatest chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be across the southern tier of the forecast
area, since the vort max will be moving across that area at max
heating, coinciding with the strongest lower level lapse rates.
A slight inversion at around 10 - 12k ft may hamper development,
but if surface temperatures reach the low 70s, the parcel
should have enough energy to pass this layer. Regardless, this
does not look like a high energy or high shear environment, so
currently just expecting garden variety thunderstorms. These
will taper off in the evening hours as the surface temps cool
and the vort max moves southward. Showers will weaken and
dissipate Wednesday night, before a similar setup occurs on
Thursday. Instability will not be quite as strong on Thursday,
so thunderstorms are expected to be confined to the southwest,
if we see any at all.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Thursday night, the upper level low will have settled over
the southeast portion of the forecast area, and the majority of
Maine will be under northerly flow on the backside of the low.
This will keep some unsettled weather over the region through
Friday morning, when the upper level ridge begins to move in
from the west. On Friday and Saturday, the ridge will be the
dominating factor and quiet weather will prevail. The pattern
will shift again beginning Saturday night, when the ridge slides
off to the east and a longwave trough approaches from the west.
This will bring increasing chances of rain Saturday through
Monday. However, some uncertainty still exists with the
potential of a tropical system moving off to the east. The
result is a rather broad brushed forecast with showers and
afternoon thunderstorms possible through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR overnight and Tuesday morning, but local IFR/MVFR
in any fog patches overnight. Variable conditions with any
showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. West/northwest winds
around 5 knots overnight. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots
Tuesday, except west/southwest 10 to 15 knots at KBHB.

SHORT TERM: Generally VFR through Friday. Chance of afternoon
showers/storms most days could bring briefly lower conditions,
but by far the most common condition will be VFR. Winds less
than 10 kts except up to around 10 kts from the NW Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
criteria through the short term.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Norcross
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...CB/Norcross/LF
Marine...CB/Norcross/LF