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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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106 FXUS61 KCAR 130110 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 910 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes overnight. A series of surface trofs will then move across the region Tuesday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 9:10 PM Update: Diurnally driven showers have for the most part dissipated. There are still a few showers on the back side of an upper trough moving south toward the Saint John Valley, but they will likely fall apart before reaching the area based on the latest radar trends. Otherwise, a fairly quiet night with a clear to partly cloudy sky and seasonable lows in the 50s. Just a few minor tweaks for late this evening based on the latest radar trends and observations. Previous Discussion... An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes tonight. Isolated/scattered showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, will occur early tonight. Showers/thunderstorms will then dissipate with the upper trof exiting along with the loss of diurnal heating. Partly cloudy/mostly clear skies are expected overnight. A disturbance moving around the exiting system helps re-establish upper level troffing across the region Tuesday. A surface trof will also cross the region Tuesday, while a cold front moves westward across New Brunswick toward the Maine/New Brunswick border. With diurnal instability, expect isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms across mostly northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, expect mostly/partly sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s Downeast. High temperatures Tuesday will range from around 80 to the lower 80s across the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper level trough will remain in place through Thursday, allowing several shortwaves to rotate through the pattern. The strongest of these will be Wednesday afternoon, when a vort max will move into the base of the trough as it moves southward across the forecast area. The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across the southern tier of the forecast area, since the vort max will be moving across that area at max heating, coinciding with the strongest lower level lapse rates. A slight inversion at around 10 - 12k ft may hamper development, but if surface temperatures reach the low 70s, the parcel should have enough energy to pass this layer. Regardless, this does not look like a high energy or high shear environment, so currently just expecting garden variety thunderstorms. These will taper off in the evening hours as the surface temps cool and the vort max moves southward. Showers will weaken and dissipate Wednesday night, before a similar setup occurs on Thursday. Instability will not be quite as strong on Thursday, so thunderstorms are expected to be confined to the southwest, if we see any at all. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... By Thursday night, the upper level low will have settled over the southeast portion of the forecast area, and the majority of Maine will be under northerly flow on the backside of the low. This will keep some unsettled weather over the region through Friday morning, when the upper level ridge begins to move in from the west. On Friday and Saturday, the ridge will be the dominating factor and quiet weather will prevail. The pattern will shift again beginning Saturday night, when the ridge slides off to the east and a longwave trough approaches from the west. This will bring increasing chances of rain Saturday through Monday. However, some uncertainty still exists with the potential of a tropical system moving off to the east. The result is a rather broad brushed forecast with showers and afternoon thunderstorms possible through Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR overnight and Tuesday morning, but local IFR/MVFR in any fog patches overnight. Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. West/northwest winds around 5 knots overnight. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots Tuesday, except west/southwest 10 to 15 knots at KBHB. SHORT TERM: Generally VFR through Friday. Chance of afternoon showers/storms most days could bring briefly lower conditions, but by far the most common condition will be VFR. Winds less than 10 kts except up to around 10 kts from the NW Tuesday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels through Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the short term. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...LF Long Term...LF Aviation...CB/Norcross/LF Marine...CB/Norcross/LF