791
FXUS61 KCAR 161436
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1036 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of surface troughs will pass just west of the area
through Sunday. Ernesto will pass well east of the area through
Monday as a cold front crosses the area Monday night into
Tuesday. High pressure builds in towards Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10:36AM Update...Dense Fog Advisory expired at 10am. Fog
continues to mix out and dry out of the boundary layer as
daytime heating takes place. Once again Smoke will inhibit the
full potential of the sun today. Expecting more isolated
shower/storm activity today but mainly confined to the Moosehead
Region into North Woods. No other major changes...

Previous discussion...The forecast area will continue to be
under the influence of the upper level low through this evening.
The remnants of some Canadian thunderstorms are currently
moving over the Central Highlands and slowly dissipating. This
afternoon, showers are expected mainly along the western Maine
border. Ridging will move in aloft at this point, and showers
will dissipate through early evening, with a dry overnight
expected. The smoke forecast continues to be a challenge with
plenty of upper level smoke available. HRRR and RAP forecast
models continue to show the smoke mostly elevated, so milky
skies will continue. Although smoke is not expected to mix down
to the surface at impactful levels, general haze will continue
so have kept that in the grids for now. Lowered temps slightly
from guidance due to the presence of smoke aloft, but highs in
the low to mid 70s are still expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough will slowly approach the area from the
west, while high pressure remains stubborn to the east of the
area. This will result in southerly flow across the area,
bringing in warm and muggy conditions on Saturday. High
temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s from the
Central Highlands northward, with dew points in the 60s. The
Bangor region and Downeast will see cooler temperatures thanks
to southerly flow off the cold waters of the Gulf of Maine.
Latest model guidance indicates there could still be some smoke
in the atmosphere on Saturday, which would limit high
temperatures somewhat.

Shortwave ridging will preclude shower development over most of
the area on Saturday. However, a few showers and a rumble or two
of thunder could develop towards the Quebec border later in the
day into Saturday night. Low temperatures Saturday night will
mainly be in the lower 60s, with some patchy fog possible late.

Sunday will mostly be similar to Saturday. The only real
difference is the threat of showers will be somewhat higher in
western areas with the upper-level trough slowly moving
eastward. High temperatures will be well into the 70s away from
the coast, with dew points once again in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models continue to be in good agreement that Hurricane Ernesto
will track well east of Maine on Monday. That said, swells from
the storm will likely still result in high surf and rip currents
along the coast. Otherwise, the aforementioned upper-level
trough will move towards the area, and drag a cold front through
the region late Monday into Monday night. This is expected to
bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms during that
time. The strength of any thunderstorms will depend on the
timing of the front and how much, if any, clearing occurs on
Monday. A few showers may linger into Tuesday. Otherwise, cooler
and drier weather for midweek next week with high pressure
building in.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Fog continues to bring IFR/LIFR conditions around
the area this morning, in particular at northern TAF sites where
showers last night added an extra source of moisture. Conditions
expected to rise to VFR an hour or two after sunrise, similar to
yesterday. VFR conditions will remain at all TAF sites through
the day. A return to IFR/LIFR conditions in fog overnight is
expected. Winds will remain light.


SHORT TERM:
Sat...VFR across all terminals. Slight chance for rain showers
around GNR. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Sat night - Sun...VFR across all terminals, with brief IFR or
lower possible in any patchy fog. Light S winds around 5 kts.

Sun night - Mon night...VFR early, with cigs gradually falling
towards MVFR/IFR in approaching rain showers and patchy fog.
Thunderstorms possible Monday. S winds 5 to 10 kts shifting NW
late Monday, remaining 5 to 10 kts.

Tues...Conditions gradually improving to VFR. NW winds 5 to 10
kts with gusts 15 to 20 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
the near term.


SHORT TERM:
Seas will build above Small Craft Advisory levels by Saturday
night due to long period swells from Hurricane Ernesto, which
will pass well east of the waters. Patchy fog will also reduce
visibility over the waters at times Saturday into Monday. Seas
will subside below SCA criteria by late Tuesday as Ernesto moves
away. Winds will remain below Small Craft levels through
midweek.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF/Sinko
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...LF/Sinko/Clark
Marine...LF/Sinko/Clark