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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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791 FXUS61 KCAR 161436 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1036 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A series of surface troughs will pass just west of the area through Sunday. Ernesto will pass well east of the area through Monday as a cold front crosses the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds in towards Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10:36AM Update...Dense Fog Advisory expired at 10am. Fog continues to mix out and dry out of the boundary layer as daytime heating takes place. Once again Smoke will inhibit the full potential of the sun today. Expecting more isolated shower/storm activity today but mainly confined to the Moosehead Region into North Woods. No other major changes... Previous discussion...The forecast area will continue to be under the influence of the upper level low through this evening. The remnants of some Canadian thunderstorms are currently moving over the Central Highlands and slowly dissipating. This afternoon, showers are expected mainly along the western Maine border. Ridging will move in aloft at this point, and showers will dissipate through early evening, with a dry overnight expected. The smoke forecast continues to be a challenge with plenty of upper level smoke available. HRRR and RAP forecast models continue to show the smoke mostly elevated, so milky skies will continue. Although smoke is not expected to mix down to the surface at impactful levels, general haze will continue so have kept that in the grids for now. Lowered temps slightly from guidance due to the presence of smoke aloft, but highs in the low to mid 70s are still expected. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An upper-level trough will slowly approach the area from the west, while high pressure remains stubborn to the east of the area. This will result in southerly flow across the area, bringing in warm and muggy conditions on Saturday. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s from the Central Highlands northward, with dew points in the 60s. The Bangor region and Downeast will see cooler temperatures thanks to southerly flow off the cold waters of the Gulf of Maine. Latest model guidance indicates there could still be some smoke in the atmosphere on Saturday, which would limit high temperatures somewhat. Shortwave ridging will preclude shower development over most of the area on Saturday. However, a few showers and a rumble or two of thunder could develop towards the Quebec border later in the day into Saturday night. Low temperatures Saturday night will mainly be in the lower 60s, with some patchy fog possible late. Sunday will mostly be similar to Saturday. The only real difference is the threat of showers will be somewhat higher in western areas with the upper-level trough slowly moving eastward. High temperatures will be well into the 70s away from the coast, with dew points once again in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models continue to be in good agreement that Hurricane Ernesto will track well east of Maine on Monday. That said, swells from the storm will likely still result in high surf and rip currents along the coast. Otherwise, the aforementioned upper-level trough will move towards the area, and drag a cold front through the region late Monday into Monday night. This is expected to bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms during that time. The strength of any thunderstorms will depend on the timing of the front and how much, if any, clearing occurs on Monday. A few showers may linger into Tuesday. Otherwise, cooler and drier weather for midweek next week with high pressure building in. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Fog continues to bring IFR/LIFR conditions around the area this morning, in particular at northern TAF sites where showers last night added an extra source of moisture. Conditions expected to rise to VFR an hour or two after sunrise, similar to yesterday. VFR conditions will remain at all TAF sites through the day. A return to IFR/LIFR conditions in fog overnight is expected. Winds will remain light. SHORT TERM: Sat...VFR across all terminals. Slight chance for rain showers around GNR. S winds 5 to 10 kts. Sat night - Sun...VFR across all terminals, with brief IFR or lower possible in any patchy fog. Light S winds around 5 kts. Sun night - Mon night...VFR early, with cigs gradually falling towards MVFR/IFR in approaching rain showers and patchy fog. Thunderstorms possible Monday. S winds 5 to 10 kts shifting NW late Monday, remaining 5 to 10 kts. Tues...Conditions gradually improving to VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts 15 to 20 kts possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the near term. SHORT TERM: Seas will build above Small Craft Advisory levels by Saturday night due to long period swells from Hurricane Ernesto, which will pass well east of the waters. Patchy fog will also reduce visibility over the waters at times Saturday into Monday. Seas will subside below SCA criteria by late Tuesday as Ernesto moves away. Winds will remain below Small Craft levels through midweek. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...LF/Sinko Short Term...Clark Long Term...Clark Aviation...LF/Sinko/Clark Marine...LF/Sinko/Clark