638
FXUS61 KCAR 131559
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1159 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will cross the region today, followed by high pressure
on Sunday. A cold front will begin to approach Tuesday. The
front stalls over the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200PM Update...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
starting to move into the north with the rest of the showers
from this morning have moved out of the south. Adjusted the
precip and weather forecast to show this. Also adjusted the sky
cover with the clearing this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of
the forecast looks good.

Previous discussion...
An upper level trough will cross the region today, triggering
showers and thunderstorms as it moves through. The first band of
showers will move through this morning, followed by more
widespread showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon.
CAPE values across the area will generally rise above 1000 k/J
early this afternoon, so thunderstorms are expected to start by
early afternoon. Not a lot of bulk shear with these storms, so
not expecting much in the way of severe storms. There is some
variation between the models on how much DCAPE is available with
the passage of the trough, so gusty winds may be possible, but
didn`t have enough confidence to add enhanced wording the
forecast. A bigger concern might be heavy precip with these
storms, as PWATs are still running around 1.75 inches. However,
the storm vectors aren`t perfectly aligned, so again refrained
from any specifics in the forecast.

Post-trough passage, skies will begin to clear in advance of the
ridging expected on Sunday. Dewpoints remain high across the
region so muggy conditions will continue overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Very warm and muggy weather continuing Sunday and Monday.

Sunday...
The ridging for Sunday looks less pronounced than it had been, and
raised PoPs up to around 20 percent for the north since
subsidence is looking less pronounced. Could be enough
instability for a few storms, but not confident enough in this
and kept precip as showers. Very warm and humid with highs in
the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots hitting 90. Heat
advisory criteria could be approached mainly interior Downeast.
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

Sunday Night...
Any isolated convection from Sunday should die off early Sunday
evening, leaving for dry conditions Sunday night. Mild again,
with patchy fog and lows in the 60s.

Monday...
Subtle upper level shortwave trough with upper level jet support
approaches from the west. Looking for a better chance of storms
in the afternoon, and went with PoPs around 30 percent mainly
north/west of I-95. Again very warm/hot and muggy, with highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s. Some places Downeast including the
Bangor region could approach heat advisory criteria with heat
indices nearing 95.

Monday Night...
Not much change for Monday night. Perhaps just a touch warmer with
more clouds than Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Hot and humid weather continuing into Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the threat of heat advisory criteria each day, and high
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. A cold front and upper
trough will be approaching slowly from the west Tue/Wed, and
conditions are favorable for storms each day, and went with PoPs
generally 30 to 60 percent both days. The timing of the cold
front and upper trough has slowed a bit in most models, and
appears to move through roughly late Wednesday or Wednesday
night. If the timing of the front is right, and it could be,
Wednesday afternoon could be a very active day for strong/severe
storms. Shear will be plentiful. Tentatively looking for drying
behind the front for most areas Thursday, though could still be
enough instability Downeast for a few showers/storms Thursday
afternoon. Higher confidence in dry conditions in the north
Thursday, and areawide Friday into Saturday. Cooler/drier air
behind the front will provide welcome relief, with temperatures
returning to fairly close to average or perhaps still slightly
above, but the lower dewpoints will be noticeable.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR with thunderstorms expected to develop across
the region by early afternoon, but did not think they were
widespread enough to add to any TAFs specifically. Possible fog
overnight tonight, mainly Downeast.


SHORT TERM:
Sunday...VFR with light SW winds.

Sunday night...Generally VFR, though patchy fog could bring locally
much lower conditions. Best chance of fog at BHB at along the
coast, but possible anywhere. Light winds.

Monday...Generally VFR. Chance of afternoon thunderstorms, mostly
along and north/west of a GNR to HUL line. SW wind 5-10 kts.

Monday night...Generally VFR, though patchy fog could bring locally
much lower conditions. Best chance of fog at BHB at along the
coast, but possible anywhere. Light winds.

Tuesday...VFR outside of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. SW
wind 10 kts.

Tuesday night...VFR, diminishing to MVFR/IFR for most sites. SW
wind 5 kts.

Wednesday...Variable conditions with good chance of
thunderstorms. SW wind 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft criteria
for the near term. Areas of marine fog will reduce visibility to
1 nm at times.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be the primary concern until a strong cold
front moves through later Wednesday, when thunderstorms will
also be possible. Winds/seas below small craft until perhaps
late Wednesday, when winds and seas could approach small craft
levels just ahead of a cold front.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF/LaFlash
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...LF/LaFlash/Foisy
Marine...LF/LaFlash/Foisy