209
FXUS61 KCAR 071110
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
710 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall over the area today. High pressure builds in
from the west tonight and Monday. A weak surface trough
approaches from the north Tuesday night. Low pressure then approaches
from the west Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
710 am update...
Front looks to have made it through Bangor this morning but
will likely waver back and forth this morning with very little
in the way of steering flow. Still expecting showers and isold
storms to develop this afternoon acrs the north. Little
significant chgs have been made with this update.

Prev discussion blo...
Very weak flow over the area tonight leading to areas of fog,
some of it locally dense at times. Remnant MCV has brought
showers and tstms along the coast tonight. Expect these will
move into New Brunswick by 09z. As they move through,
visibilities rise to around 1 mile before dropping back down
toward 1/4 to 1/2 mile.

Vort max currently over srn Michigan will eject twd the nrn
half of CWA this morning. This, in combination with favorable
RRQ of upr lvl jet, will allow showers to develop along and
north of the front mid-late morning. With diurnal heating
expected, CAPES will range from 500-800 J/kg and have continued
mention of isolated storms to the north of Moosehead to Danforth
line in the afternoon and early evening hours. Temps will top
out above 80 across the north and into the middle 80s over
Downeast, cooler along the coast.

Front will remain over srn portions of the area tonight as it
slowly dies in place. This will be favorable for more fog to the
south of the boundary over Downeast. Further to the north
clearing skies will likely lead to patchy fog with temps
dropping into the upr 50s over portions of the North Woods where
winds are able to decouple.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Very warm and humid air mass remains in place through Tuesday as a
west to southwest flow aloft persists. Afternoon highs both Monday
and Tuesday will climb into the mid to upper 80s away from the
coast. Dew points will be in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees both
afternoons. Heat indices both days may approach the low 90s toward
the Bangor region, but are expected to remain below advisory levels
at this time. Expect any patchy fog to burn off early and give way
to mainly sunny skies. Despite the warm and muggy air mass in place
across the region on Monday, the building ridge/warming aloft should
inhibit any threat of convection.  Monday night is expected to be
mainly clear to partly cloudy, warm and muggy. Lows will
generally be in the mid 60s. By Tuesday, the 500MB heights
begin to decrease across the area in advance of an approaching
short wave and weak surface cold front from Quebec. This will
bring a chance for showers and thunderstorm by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weak front moves into the area later Tuesday night and
early Wednesday before stalling out near the coast. Expect
mainly cloudy skies and the chance for showers along with patchy
fog Tuesday night. Wednesday will still be quite humid although
afternoon highs will not be quite as warm as Tuesday`s.
Uncertainty still exists mid to late week regarding how much
moisture makes it into the area from Beryl. The 0z operational
GFS/EC continue to be the most bullish in bringing a good slug
of moisture into the state from Beryl later Wednesday night and
into Thursday. 0Z CMC on the other hand was less aggressive. At
this point, just continued to follow NBM POPs through the mid
to late week period. It still appears that temperatures will
continue to run a bit above normal for much of the late week
period along with continued muggy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR expected with cigs and vsbys reduced acrs
all terminals for the first hour or two before slowly improving.
Expect all terminals to improve to VFR after mid-morning.
Showers and possible storms are expected north of BGR but have
not included in terminal forecasts at this time. BGR and BHB
will likely diminish to IFR after 06z Monday.

SHORT TERM:

Mon...VFR.

Mon night...VFR, possible lower conditions in late night patchy
fog.

Tue... VFR. Chance of a showers and thunderstorms.

Tue night through Thu...MVFR. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Headlines are not expected today or tonight.
Visibilities will continue to be reduced below one mile at
times through the period in fog. Seas drop to below 4ft this
afternoon and range between 1 to 3 feet tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA levels
through mid week. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM at
times in patchy nighttime and early morning fog.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Buster/TWD
Marine...Buster/TWD