293
FXUS61 KCAR 210014
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
814 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region overnight into Sunday. High
pressure will build over the area Sunday night into Monday. A
frontal system will stall over the area Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Update...
Updated for expiration of the Beach Hazards Statement. A cold
front is currently approaching northern Maine. The cold front
will move toward Downeast areas overnight. Expect
scattered/numerous showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm,
across northern areas early tonight. A weakening area of showers
will then move south across the forecast area overnight with
the cold front. Otherwise, expect partly/mostly cloudy skies
north tonight. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly clear skies
early then partly cloudy with isolated showers possible late.
Could also have patchy fog along the Downeast coast late. Low
temperatures will range from the lower to mid 50s north, to
around 60 to the lower 60s Downeast.

Previous Discussion...
With the cold front then making slow progress toward the
Downeast coast durg the day Sun, we cannot rule out additional
isold shwr activity msly Midday til mid Aftn ovr Downeast areas,
with again very lmtd CAPEs for isold tstms at most. Low temps
Tngt will be warmer than the last couple ngts, followed by
cooler High temps across the N on Sun with llvl cool advcn well
underway ovr this ptn of the FA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will be building in from the west on Sunday night
with core passing to our south shortly after daybreak. Clear skies,
light winds and dry air will allow radiational cooling to take place
with low dropping into the middle-upper 40s over the North Woods.
Cannot rule out an upper 30 as lowest dwpts could drop into the 30s
in some isolated locations.

CWA will be in between two upr systems on Monday with temperatures
increasing to near normal over inland sections, though may be
slightly cooler across the north as cu field develops during the
afternoon. High pressure ridge axis looks to remain over the area
Monday night before shifting to the north as srn stream s/wv moves
out of the mid-Atlantic.

Showers should move toward the Bangor Region around daybreak on
Tuesday, depending on how quickly hipres retreats back to the north.
All med range guidance is showing a stationary boundary setting up
acrs the northern half of the CONUS between cooler and drier air
over nrn Canada and warm and humid air over the southern U.S. Warm
advection showers look to be favorable on Tuesday afternoon over the
area with the best chance over srn areas, closer to better forcing
associated with secondary low. Tuesday will be slightly warmer across
the north and slightly cooler over Downeast where best chance for
cloudy weather and showers will be.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night likely to see just some spotty showers as brief upr
ridge builds in as H5 trof builds into the wrn Great Lakes, though
EC/CMC showing sfc low over the Gulf of Maine and frontal boundary
located to south of CWA. May need to bump pops up during the
nighttime hours at some point.

Med range guidance indicates the H5 trof digging into the Great
Lakes around mid-week though models have different solns regarding
it/s fate. 12z GFS and it/s ensemble brings it thru the state as an
open trough Thursday night into Friday with high pressure building
in quickly behind it. EC and CMC actually close the upr low over the
northeast with the Canadian bringing it through quicker than the
Euro. Due to significant uncertainties still remaining at the end of
the week have gone with NBM pops, which lean toward more of the
compromise soln of the Canadian.

Guidance continues to advertise near normal temperatures through the
long term with no real indications of anomalous temps for the next 7
days.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions with any showers, isolated
thunderstorms, across mostly northern areas early tonight. Also,
variable conditions with any patchy fog along the Downeast
coast late tonight into early Sunday. Otherwise, generally VFR
tonight through Sunday. An isolated shower/thunderstorm
possible mostly Downeast Sunday. Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots,
becoming west/northwest 5 to 10 knots tonight. West/northwest
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sunday night-Monday night...VFR. May see IFR over
Downeast terminals late Monday night. W 5-10kts becoming light
SW Monday night.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. IFR for Downeast terminals
early Tuesday. Light S winds.

Wednesday-Thursday...IFR cigs becoming more likely for Downeast
terminals, possibly as far north as HUL. MVFR in showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. S 5-10kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
tonight through Sunday. Patchy fog later tonight into early
Sunday. Isolated showers Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds remain below small craft advisory
levels through the week. Better chance for reductions in fog
over the waters after Tuesday morning.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/VJN
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Norcross/Buster
Marine...Norcross/Buster