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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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810 FXUS61 KCAR 171119 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 719 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain to our south today. A weak weather disturbance will cross the area tonight followed by a cold front on Thursday. High pressure will build in from the west on Friday. Another cold front will cross the area Saturday followed by high pressure on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 719 AM Update: Rain is finally clearing out of the forecast area this morning, with a brief break in store as skies begin to clear ahead of the next incoming disturbance. Dewpoints remain quite high, around 70 across the forecast area. The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on observations and trends. Previous Discussion: Lingering showers will continue to push eastward out of the region early this morning, with the heaviest rain just exiting the CWA shortly before sunrise. Behind this recent disturbance, a brief pause in rain showers will take place. During this time, surface capping will allow for CAPE to build under diurnal heating. This, combined with yet another small 500 mb vort max, will lead to another round of showers and storms developing through the afternoon. MUCAPE may max out around 1000 J/kg, while bulk shear continues to build through the day to near 40 kts. The most unfavorable ingredient for convective development of the current synoptic setup, as has been the past few days, are the lapse rates, which in the low levels may briefly approach 7 C/km this afternoon across interior Downeast, but mid level lapse rates will likely remain closer to 5 C/km. Forecast soundings do indicate a bit more of wider CAPE profile than seen the past couple days, and a shallow inverted V signature. Given all these ingredients, there is the chance for any stronger storms this afternoon to contain gusty winds. PWs will also increase through the day and into the evening hours, approaching 2 inches which is well above the average for this time of the year. Elevated moisture and deep warm cloud layer will provide a favorable environment for efficient rainfall processes, leading to locally heavy rain which could lead to ponding and localized flooding in poor drainage areas. Today will also be warm and muggy again, with high temperatures lifting into the mid to upper 80s across the forecast area, aside from the immediate coast where the marine influence will keep temperatures more mild. Dewpoints will continue to persist in the upper 60s to lower 70s, leading to heat indices (what it feels like) surging into the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few spots Downeast, particularly around Bangor, will see heat indices lift further into the mid to upper 90s, and a heat advisory remains in effect for southern Penobscot county. Relief from the heat will begin to work its way in tonight in the form of an approaching cold front. With the next synoptic disturbance in spitting distance overnight, another plume of showers and storms may lift into the area, with general consensus across CAMs zoning in on Downeast as the region for another round of nocturnal rainfall. With efficient rain ingredients still in play, locally heavy rainfall remains a threat through the night tonight, particularly across the Downeast area, but this threat could shift northwards pending future trends. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front will push across the area Thursday ahead of an upper trough lifting up to our west. A corridor of moisture ahead of the front in the humid air circulating north of the subtropical ridge may bring some showers to mainly southern and eastern areas Thursday morning. Slightly cooler air and drier air will begin to filter into the area following the front Thursday afternoon. Some cooler air aloft associated with the upper trough will result in some low low level instability with CAPEs up to 200 J/JG up to 15K ft so will have chance thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, Thursday will bring partial clearing as the front pushes in. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday night bringing a clear and cooler night with lower humidity than recent nights. The clear and tranquil air will likely allow some patchy ground fog to form late at night. The drier air will allow temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 50s in most areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will bring a sunny and seasonably cooler day on Friday with highs topping out from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s across interior Downeast. A light southwesterly breeze will increase Friday afternoon well ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Friday night will be clear and comfortable ahead of the cold front. The cold front will continue to approach on Saturday reaching northern areas early Saturday afternoon then continuing Downeast reaching the coast early Saturday evening. Given the timing of the front, some isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the area, mainly early afternoon north and late Saturday south. Winds will be strong aloft in the gradient south of an upper trough in Eastern Canada. This will give any thunderstorm a potential for gusty winds. Cooler and drier air will follow the front Saturday night with lows from the low 50s north to the low 60s south. High pressure will bring sunshine dotted with a few fair weather cumulus clouds on Sunday with highs from the low 70s north to near 80 south with low humidity. This will be followed by a mostly clear and cool night Saturday night with some northern spots possibly dropping into the 40s in the cooler valleys. High pressure will remain over the area Monday with another relatively cool day. A bit of mid and upper level moisture rounding the bottom of the Eastern Canadian trough may bring patchy cloudiness on Monday. Otherwise, Monday should be partly sunny and dry. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR to continue through the day on today, though again brief MVFR or IFR remain possible in afternoon showers and storms. Winds will increase this afternoon to 5 to 10 kts out of the SW, with gusts 20 kts or more possible in thunderstorms. Light and variable winds return tonight, with decreasing cigs in rain. Sites most likely to return to MVFR/IFR in rain will be south of a line from GNR through HUL. SHORT TERM: Thursday...VFR. Light W wind Thursday night...VFR except in any patchy fog late at night. Light W wind becoming calm. Friday...VFR. Light W wind. Friday night...VFR. Light SW wind. Saturday...VFR except in any shower or thunderstorm. Light SW wind. Saturday night...VFR. Light NW wind Sunday...VFR. Light NW wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight, though a few gusts to 25 kts are possible through the early morning hours on the coastal waters, and seas may approach 5 ft on the outermost reaches of the coastal waters. Patchy fog may reduce visibility to around 1 mile at times through the day today. SHORT TERM: Wind and seas will remain below SCA Thursday through the coming weekend. Humid air over the cooler waters may result in some fog or mist Thursday into Thursday night. A moderate decrease in humidity Friday into the weekend should result in improving visibilities Friday into the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ015. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...AStrauser/Bloomer Marine...AStrauser/Bloomer