939
FXUS61 KCAR 180753
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
353 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today followed by high pressure on
Friday. Another cold front will approach on Saturday and cross the
area Saturday night. High pressure will build over the region Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front that is currently positioned near the St.
Lawrence river will continue to track towards the forecast area
this morning, while the pre-frontal trough that sits along a
line from Bucksport up through Danforth shifts southwards and
exits off the coast. These two surface troughs will provide
enough lift to continue the threat for showers across the
region, however drier air ushering into the region aloft due to
the upper level trough will limit shower and storm develop into
this afternoon, especially across the north. The greatest chance
for any thunderstorm development into the afternoon hours will
be into Washington County, where mid level moisture will linger
in proximity to the pre-frontal trough.

Temperatures will not be as warm today due to dry air moving
into the region and a shift to cold air advection. Highs will
lift into the low to mid 80s. Tonight, clearing skies coupled
with cool air advection and drier profiles in general will lead
to lows falling into the mid to upper 50s. Dewpoints should also
drop significantly as compared to earlier this week, with
dewpoints in the 50s by the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure building over the area on Friday will bring sunshine,
a few cumulus clouds over the north, and slightly cooler and drier
air than we have had in recent days. Highs from the upper 70s north
to the lower 80s south will be close to normal and dew points will
be in the mid to upper 50s as compared to the upper 60s which we
have had recently. This will be followed by a clear and comfortably
cool night Friday night as high pressure remains over the area. Lows
across most of the region will be in the upper 50s.

A rather deep cold core upper low will track from Hudson bay
into northern Quebec Friday night into Saturday pushing a new
cold front south toward our area. The cold front will reach
northern Maine late Saturday afternoon. Moderately cool and dry
air will already be in place following Thursday`s cold front so
this front will not have too much heat and moisture to work
with. A few showers and possibly a low top thunderstorm may
effect far northern Maine during the afternoon Saturday.
Otherwise, the front will only bring in a band of clouds across
the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front from Quebec will continue to push across the area
Saturday night. Other than some spotty showers across the north, the
frontal passage looks like it will be mostly dry with just a band of
clouds pushing south with the front. Cooler, drier air and clearing
will follow the front overnight with lows by Sunday morning in the
low 50s across the far north and low 60s over the interior south.

The cold front will weaken and reach the Downeast coast early
Sunday morning. Northern areas will have sunshine mixed with
some fair weather cumulus clouds on Sunday. This will be
followed by a moonlit and very cool night Sunday night with lows
near 50 north and in the mid 50s Downeast as high pressure
settles over the area.

As we go into early next week, our focus will turn back toward
the warm and humid subtropical Bermuda high to our south. The
cool high pressure which comes in over the weekend will
dissipate and some moisture circulating up the coast around the
subtropical high may begin to push back into the area early to
mid week. The GFS carries moisture and a chance of showers in
on Monday while the ECMWF still maintains high pressure on
Monday. By Tuesday, and perhaps more so on Wednesday, more
moisture from around the high to our south may begin to work
north into our area bringing a moderate increase in humidity and
increased chances for showers. However, with high pressure
remaining to our north, we are not seeing a return of the
extreme heat and humidity which has been with us through the
third week in July.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR conditions over northern terminals,
though brief MVFR is possible should any patchy fog move in
across any one terminal. Confidence is low (less than 10%) of
dense fog at any one terminal and has been left out of the TAF
for northern terminals.

Rain showers continue across Downeast terminals through the
early morning hours. Cigs will continue to lower, potentially
becoming LIFR at BHB and briefly IFR at BGR. Downeast terminals
will are expected to all return to VFR later this morning as
cigs lift.

Light and variable winds through the early morning will increase
after 10z to SW at around 5 to 10 kts, then begin to shift
through the afternoon and increase further to 10 to 15 kts with
gusts to 20 kts possible as a front pushes from north to south
through the forecast area. Skies will clear across all terminals
tonight with VFR conditions and light winds overnight.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...VFR. Light W wind.

Friday night...VFR except possibly light fog or mist late. Light SW
wind.

Saturday...VFR. Light SW wind.

Saturday night...VFR. Light W wind.

Sunday...VFR. Light W to NW wind.

Sunday night...VFR except in some valley fog late. Light W
wind, becoming calm.

Monday...VFR Light W wind.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas should remain below small craft
advisory criteria today through tonight. Winds may briefly gust
near 20 kts early this morning before decreasing through the
rest of the day. Seas may briefly reach 5 ft on the outermost
reaches of the coastal waters. Patchy fog could reduce
visibility below 1 NM through the day today. Scattered showers
will continue through the day as well before skies clear out
overnight.

SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas are expected to be below SCA through this weekend
and into early next week. Slightly drier air will likely result
in improved visibilities over the water.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...AStrauser/Bloomer
Marine...AStrauser/Bloomer