Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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169 FXUS62 KCAE 161912 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 312 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be over the area today. As a cold front approaches the Southeast US this weekend, moisture and rain chances return. Drier air and cooler temperatures are on tap for early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Slight chance for a passing shower or two, especially over the far north and west. Upper trough centered over the Great Lakes will begin to dig as it moves east through the period. The upper ridge over the Southeastern US will weaken in response to this with surface high pressure moving offshore. This change in the Synoptic pattern has allowed moisture to return across the FA this afternoon with PWATs currently between 1.5 and 2 inches. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows more robust cumulus development compared to yesterday with a few very light returns appearing on radar. Instability is very weak with SBCAPE generally between 500 and 1000 J/kg and no significant trigger in place. This means that the region should remain mostly dry this afternoon and evening with only a low (less than 20 percent) chance of a shower or two. The best chance for showers will be across our far northern and western CWA as guidance continues to suggest a showers may approach from the Upstate this evening. Temperatures is on track to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows forecast to fall into the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Showers and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend. - A few thunderstorms may be strong with damaging wind gusts as the primary severe hazard, particularly on Sunday. Warm Saturday as upper ridge axis moves offshore and upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region. Moisture remains high over the area with PWAT values between 1.7" and 2". Showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday in conjunction with a pre-frontal trough with a cold front still west of the region. Best chance will remain over the western Midlands closer to the incoming front, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Confidence is on the lower end for coverage, with a lack of upper support for much of the peak heating hours. High temperatures Saturday back into the lower 90s, with lows in the lower 70s. Better dynamics on Sunday with the front approaching and passing through the area. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms with better organization given stronger shear and more upper level support. Convection could be stronger to marginally severe, mainly with the threat for damaging winds. Convection may last a little into the evening hours, but then should end with the front passing late Sunday night into Monday. Drier air then begins to filter into the region. Temperatures similar to Saturday, with highs in the low to middle 90s possible, and lows around 70 Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message(s): - Lower rain chances much of the week with drier air over the region. Cold front moves east of the area Monday with drier air filtering in from the west. Upper troughiness hangs around much of the week, but surface high pressure will translate east across the Great Lakes and into New England before ridging down the coast mid to late week. Ensemble mean PWAT values are below 1.5", particularly during the middle of the week when they may approaching 1". This should set us up for a drier period along with slightly cooler temperatures, with highs in the 80s and lows down into the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR Conditions Likely to Continue... Satellite imagery shows SCT cumulus at the terminals this afternoon with winds out of the southwest. High pressure will continue to shift east this afternoon and into the overnight hours. However, limited instability should prevent widespread shower development with the best chance of rain off to the northwest. Winds weaken this evening as high clouds move overhead. Rain chances are higher on Saturday but it appears the terminals will remain dry through the current TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday and especially Sunday, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$