806
FXUS62 KCAE 191533
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1133 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will be stationary across the region for the
next several days with increased shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible which could
result in increasing levels in area rivers. Temperatures will be
near to slightly below through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening.
- Locally heavy rainfall could lead to urban or flash flooding.
- Gusty winds possible with the stronger storms.

Water vapor imagery this morning continues to show the area in
between a deepening trough axis located along the lower
Mississippi Valley with an upper ridge off the coast. This
continues to support deep SW flow across the area with a
shortwave currently generating convection in southern Georgia
late this morning. A stationary front to the northwest of the
area not expected to move through the day as the upper flow
remains parallel to the boundary. PWATs similarly high to
yesterday, above 2 inches with a slight uptick possible into the
afternoon to around 2.25 inches. While much of the area was
stable a couple hours ago, starting to see some destabilization
with clearing of the low clouds, especially across the southern
portion of the forecast area.

While it may take a little longer to destabilize across the
entire area, do expect moderate to strong destabilization today
which along with the aformentioned shortwave and convergence
provided by the surface boundary, will lead widespread showers
and storms to once again develop mainly late this afternoon into
this evening. The severe potential seems a bit more limited
today as instability profiles on forecast soundings are long and
skinny, indicating updrafts may not become as strong. In
addition, temperatures will be a bit cooler today (upper 80s to
low 90s) and low level lapse rates will not be as steep.
Strongest storms could still produce gusty winds as typical of
our summertime convective pattern. With the pattern becoming
wetter in the last week or so, there is the potential of some
flooding. Although widespread issues remain unlikely with
steering flow between 15 to 20 knots, any training of storms,
which remains possible with a series of shortwaves moving
through and a boundary near the area, could lead to localized
flash flooding. Similar to yesterday, storms could linger into
the nighttime hours but generally coverage will diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
- Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms likely this weekend

The area will be pinched between high pressure off the coast and
troughing over the middle of the country, inducing deep southwest
flow into the state. PWATs will remain around 2" over the weekend,
as a few weak shortwaves generate showers and thunderstorms across
the region in response to daytime heating. Without much wind shear,
storms will likely lack organization, but precip loading will still
elevate the threat for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. SPC
has extended a Marginal Risk for severe weather across the northern
CWA along the NC/SC border on Saturday, while WPC continues to
depict a Marginal Risk ERO through Sunday. With the convection and
associated clouds, temperatures are expected to be near to slightly
below normal with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-The pattern remains favorable for daily chances of afternoon
 and evening showers and thunderstorms

The upper level pattern will be a bit stagnant next week, with
strong ridging across the west, troughing across the central states
and slight ridging along the Atlantic coast. Shortwave energy is
progged to break off from the trough in the Plains and rotate across
the region, and may also originate from the GoM periodically. With
this setup, it is reasonable to expect daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to continue. PWAT values should remain around 2", and
thus the potential for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds due to
precip loading will continue. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk ERO for
portions of the area through at least Monday and Tuesday next week.
Daytime temperatures through the period will be near to slightly
below normal with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Improving to generally VFR conditions this morning through early
tomorrow morning when restrictions may occur. Restrictions
associated with showers and thunderstorms are also possible
this afternoon. Then

Scattered pockets of IFR to LIFR are being reported this
morning. Expect these ceilings to improve by 13z or 14z.
Scattered to broken clouds remain in the area, with scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms moving into the area around
21z. Restrictions at the terminals associated with this
activity are possible as activity moves overhead. After the
shower and thunderstorm activity exits the region, stratus or
fog will be possible late in the TAF period. Winds are expected
to generally be from the southwest today around 5 to 8 kts
before becoming light and variable overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms may cause restrictions each day. In addition,
brief early morning restrictions may become more likely around
sunrise into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$