616
FXUS62 KCAE 111937
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
337 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air over the area today with moisture and chances of
showers and thunderstorms returning later tonight and Friday as
an area of low pressure moves across the southeastern US. This
weekend and into much of the next week, we expect mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms with above normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s)


- Drier air over the area this afternoon.

Relatively dry air is in place over the region with many
locations reporting dew points in the lower to mid 60s. The
exception is over the far eastern portions of the forecast area,
where dew points have crept back up to around 70. Most of the
area stays dry through tonight, but a frontal boundary near the
coast is expected to drift westward this afternoon and into
tonight. This will bring mainly a 20-30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the eastern half of the forecast area before
retreating towards daybreak. Overall atmospheric moisture also
is expected to increase as onshore flow persists. Overnight lows
are expected to be in the mid 70s with dew points increasing
late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected
  Friday, especially across the eastern half of the state.

An weak upper low/inverted trough will move westward towards the
southeast coast early Friday promoting development of a weak
surface low over the coastal portions of SC/GA. This will draw
moisture back into the region through onshore flow. PWAT values
rise to 2 to 2.5 inches across the eastern half of the forecast
area by Friday morning. However, the models do indicate a
moisture gradient from west to east which will affect the
coverage of convection through the day. Convergence along a
surface boundary and above normal moisture will lead to numerous
showers and thunderstorms for the eastern portions of the
Midlands. The sharp moisture gradient will likely keep coverage
lower in the western Midlands and CSRA with mainly scattered
afternoon convection expected. Temperatures will also exhibit a
gradient across the area with highs in the Pee Dee in the upper
80s while the CSRA climbs back into the middle 90s due to
increased cloud cover and higher chance for precipitation. The
showers and thunderstorms will tend to diminish overnight on
Friday with the loss of heating. It will remain muggy with
overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- At least a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.
- Above normal temperatures likely for Sunday into the middle of
  next week.
- Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms by Thursday as
  the ridge breaks down and a trough approaches from the
  northwest.
- Heat Advisory Criteria conditions likely each afternoon from
  Saturday through possibly Wednesday.

500mb height rises expected this weekend as the Bermuda High
strengthens and shifts westward. Still the highest heights will
remain over the western portion of the country. This pattern
supports increasing temperatures and moist,
southerly/southwesterly flow at the low levels. Mean PWAT will
remain close to normal for mid July, between 1.5 and 2.0 inches
through the period. PWAT values to increase late Wednesday into
Thursday as the upper level trough approaches from the
northwest. Warm, southerly flow and near normal moisture should
bring a typical summertime pattern of diurnal convection.
Global ensembles continue to favor broad troughing through the
long term with shortwave activity working down into the
Southeast by mid/late next week. This will also support a
chance of rain each day in the extended. Guidance is mixed on
just how hot temperatures will be over the region. The GFS is
slightly cooler with highs in the mid/upper 90s, while the ECMWF
has highs during the period at 100 degrees or higher. However,
daily convection could cut off heating before the typically
hottest part of the day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Mainly clear skies continue across the region, though some
cumulus clouds are developing near OGB. Expect cumulus
development to continue this afternoon with the most coverage
near OGB where there is more moisture. Low to mid level clouds
move into the are from the east overnight, but don`t anticipate
anything lower than VFR at this point. A few showers or
thunderstorms could work there way to the OGB terminal
overnight and could sneak to the CAE/CUB terminals in the
morning. However, confidence is not high enough to include in
the TAFs at this time. North to northeast winds from 5 to 10 kts
expected this afternoon, with a few isolated gusts around 15 kts
possible. Winds shift to more easterly after about 12z tomorrow.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms each day as well as early
morning fog and stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...