060
FXUS62 KCAE 150819
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
419 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms remain
possible today with heat index values up to 108. Increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms will be over the region
Tuesday through next weekend with temperatures slowly falling
from midweek onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Heat index values of 105-110 this afternoon, resulting in a
  Heat Advisory for eastern Midlands.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon
  to evening.

An upper ridge over the region continues today and tonight;
however, it begins to flatten somewhat overnight. Nonetheless,
the main story today will once again be the heat as
southwesterly flow persists today and the airmass hasn`t changed
all that much from Sunday. Afternoon highs are forecast to be
around 100 across the forecast area. Some westerly flow at 850
and 700 mb layers, will likely lead to some drier dew points
getting filtered into the region from the west. Most guidance
keeps dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 this afternoon,
which would result in heat indices in the 105-108 range, with
the highest values for the eastern Midlands, generally east of
I-26. Thus, have issued a Heat Advisory in this part of the
forecast area from 11 AM to 8 PM today. That said, there is some
uncertainty in how low the dewpoints drop this afternoon. Some
of the latest guidance is showing values as low as the mid 60s.
If this does happen, we likely will not hit the 108 Heat
Advisory threshold. Regardless, it will feel hot once again
today. Overnight, we remain warm and muggy with lows in the mid
70s.

Similar to Sunday, isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop again this afternoon and
into the evening. Forecast soundings show there isn`t much in
the way of shear, as one might expect in mid July, so the severe
threat is minimal today. That said, some gusty winds may occur
near thunderstorms due to some elevated DCAPE forecast for the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Increasing chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection
  each day
- High temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with
  the potential for a Heat Advisory Tuesday

The synoptic scale change will continue Tuesday and Wednesday
with noticeable changes occurring over the forecast area.
Change will be slow to occur Tuesday as the upper level
troughing begins to dig into the Upper MS Valley and western
Great Lakes. By Wednesday a well defined upper trough axis will
stretch from the central Great Lakes through OK with a surface
cold front extending into northern KY. As this occurs the
Bermuda high offshore will continue pushing moisture into the SE
US with pwat values slightly over 2 inches each day. Model
soundings continue to indicate at moderate to strongly unstable
atmosphere however with the upper trough well west of the area
a trigger mechanism will still be lacking. Winds through the mid
and upper level will also be weak with generally under 20s
knots and little divergence aloft. With the increasing
convergence at the surface continue to expect increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday
however with the weak steering flow there is potential for
locally heavy rainfall and possible hydro related issues with
training cells. Some areas which have been dry for an extended
period may also experience higher than normal runoff.
Temperatures will be in the upper 90s to around 100 Tuesday and
with the increasing clouds and potential for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday most locations will be in the mid 90s.
On Tuesday the combination of heat and humidity will push heat
index values into the 105 to 108 degree range. Will continue to
monitor the need for a heat advisory. Overnight lows each night
will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Gradual cooling trend continues Thursday and Friday
- Showers and thunderstorms expected each day

The upper level pattern through the long term will continue to
become increasingly amplified which allows the trough to dig
further into the SE US and linger over the eastern US. The
Bermuda high will remain in place so moisture will continue
moving onshore with the frontal boundary gradually moving
southward Thursday then stalling across the region while
becoming more diffuse Friday through Sunday. With the upper
troughing over the region expect short waves to rotate through
the area and when combined with the surface convergence produce
high chance to likely pops each day. With the upper troughing
and clouds over the region high temperatures will also continue
to lower a few degrees with afternoon highs in the low to mid
90s Thursday and the mid 80s to around 90 Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF period, but
some brief MVFR fog- stratus possible early Monday.

VFR conditions to begin the TAF period with just a few pockets
of mid-level clouds across the region. VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the TAF period. However, with the
rains at OGB, fog or stratus is possible around daybreak, which
could cause some restrictions. Fog prone AGS could also see
some low clouds or fog. Isolated convection is expected to
develop this afternoon, but confidence is too low that any of
the terminals will be affected, so did not include in the TAFs
at this time. Winds are expected to be generally from the
southwest less than 10 kts through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical summertime afternoon
showers and thunderstorms may cause periodic restrictions each
day with abundant moisture causing possible, brief early morning
restrictions around sunrise.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$