Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
999 FXUS65 KBYZ 082035 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .DISCUSSION... This afternoon through Tuesday night... An upper ridge will move eastward into the Northern Rockies through Tuesday night. This pattern will facilitate a gradual warming trend with high temperatures on Tuesday reaching the 80s to middle 90s in our forecast area. The highest temperatures will be east of Billings and west of Fallon/Carter Counties. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s to middle 60s tonight and Tuesday night. In addition, a few weak upper air disturbances will move through the upper air northwesterly flow over our area. These disturbances will help to produce isolated thunderstorms near the mountains (20% chance) through early this evening and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Please be aware if you will be heading to the higher elevations. A mid-level capping inversion should preclude any convective activity over the lower elevations. RMS Wednesday through Monday... A strong upper ridge will persist through the long term forecast period. Very warm and mostly dry conditions are anticipated, with high temperatures in the 90s and low 100s. The chance for precipitation is negligible at best until the weekend, when some weak energy moves through the ridge. The chance for showers and elevated thunderstorms increases, Friday and Saturday, generally less than 25%. A further increase in the chance for precipitation is possible, Sunday and Monday, with a 15-40% chance. High temperatures for Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 90s, with some locations in the Yellowstone River Valley approaching 100F. The latest deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF show 850mb temperature anomalies of 8-12C and 700mb temperatures of 13-19C. The will be Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 100s. The chance to exceed 100F is highest for locations in the YRV, 70-95+ percent chance. The all-time record high on Thursday, July 11th for Billings is 102F (set in 1939). The latest NBM probability for Billings to match or exceed this record is 45-65%. A brief reprieve from 100F temperatures is in store for Friday, before the potent ridge rears it`s head again, bringing highs into the low to mid 100F. The chance for high temperatures of 100F or greater on Saturday is currently 50-90%, highest in and along the YRV and far southeast MT. The chance to exceed 105F is 25-60%, again higher probabilities in the River Valley and in far SE MT. Overnight lows will be in the 60s into the weekend, with locations in the far east potentially seeing overnight temps in the low 70s Sunday morning. Matos && .AVIATION... Expect widespread VFR over the next 24 hours under building high pressure aloft. There is a low chance (<25%) for elevated showers and thunderstorms over the mountains through this evening. Matos && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060/092 062/097 065/101 066/098 065/103 068/099 067/093 00/U 00/U 00/G 00/U 00/G 11/B 11/B LVM 055/090 056/096 059/097 059/096 059/099 061/095 060/091 02/T 00/U 01/U 01/U 01/U 12/T 22/T HDN 057/093 057/098 060/102 061/099 061/103 065/101 063/095 00/U 00/U 00/G 10/U 00/G 11/G 21/B MLS 059/091 061/094 064/101 066/099 066/102 070/099 068/092 00/U 00/U 00/G 10/U 00/G 10/B 11/B 4BQ 060/091 061/096 064/100 065/098 067/103 070/100 068/093 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 00/B 11/B BHK 056/090 059/093 062/097 063/097 063/100 067/098 063/089 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 11/B SHR 055/089 055/095 059/099 061/097 059/101 064/099 063/092 02/T 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/G 01/B 12/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings