Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
061 FXUS65 KBYZ 101907 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today through Thursday Night... Temperatures are quickly on the climb with the hot air mass over us and temperatures already approaching the low 80s as of 10am. 700 mb temps are still expected to reach 15 to 17 degrees Celsius by this afternoon that will allow temperatures to approach the upper 90s, with some locations having a small chance to exceed 100 degrees F today. An extremely weak shortwave will pass over the area this afternoon and bring about a small (15%) chance for storms over the mountains, but no storms are expected to come off the higher elevations and into the plains. Thursday is more of the same but with the upper ridging over us shifting slighty further east and bringing with it even warmer air. This will bring a 60-90% chance for much of southeastern MT to achieve temperatures exceeded 100 degrees F. This also brings those areas HeatRisk values into the Major Category (RIsk Level 3 out of 4), which means this level of heat can affect anyone without proper hydration and cooling. Take necessary precautions like drinking water and wearing loose fitted, light color clothing to help reflect the sunlight off of your body. On top of this, a frontal passage will occur in the morning and afternoon, albeit a weak one that will bring little to no cooler air with it, and no increase in winds. What does come with it is extending the small chance for storms over the lower elevations of south-central and southeastern Montana. With how hot it is, any storms that form will have wind be the main threat, including outflow boundaries extending away from the storms. Vertz Friday through Wednesday... A stout upper level ridge will continue it`s dominance through much of the extended forecast period. High temperatures will stay in the 90s to low 100sF, with the hottest day being Saturday. Numerous locations including Billings, Miles City, Baker, Livingston, and Sheridan, WY, could see temperatures approach daily records. Locations in the Yellowstone River Valley have the best chance (35-70%) of seeing temps of 100F or greater, over the weekend. Little to no precipitation is anticipated, however, monsoonal moisture and weak wave energy infiltrates the ridging over the weekend. With increased moisture available, the chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms is 15-40% in the higher chance in the Absaroka/Beartooths, Saturday- Monday. Latest model depictions have the ridge axis sliding eastward and flattening out over the region. As a result, the monsoonal moisture and shortwave trof/wave energy will increase the chance for precipitation (10-40%) across the area for Tuesday and Wednesday. The best chance will still exist over the Absaroka/Beartooths and Bighorns. As mentioned previously, substantial precip amounts are not expected with any storms through the period, so gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the main concerns. With the a changing pattern, high temperatures will slightly decrease, into the low- mid 90sF, Monday- Wednesday. It is imperative to prepare for an extended period of Moderate HeatRisk (Risk Level 2 out of 4). Consider reducing time spent outdoors, stay hydrated, and care for vulnerable populations (e.g., elderly, children, pregnant women, and pets. The concern for wildfire danger is also increasing due to the combination of very warm temps, dry conditions, and storms producing lightning. Take extra precautions to avoid sparking a fire. Matos && .AVIATION... Expect widespread VFR over the next 24 hours under strong high pressure aloft. Slant range visibility may start to be affected by lofted smoke from wildfires to our west, especially from KBIL westward this afternoon/evening. JKL/PM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 066/100 065/099 065/101 067/100 067/095 065/093 063/093 00/U 20/U 00/G 11/B 11/B 11/U 12/T LVM 061/097 059/096 057/098 060/095 059/092 058/091 056/090 02/T 20/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T 12/T HDN 063/101 062/100 063/102 063/100 062/095 061/094 061/093 00/G 20/U 10/G 11/B 11/B 11/U 11/U MLS 067/100 066/099 065/099 067/099 068/095 064/091 062/090 21/U 20/U 10/U 10/B 11/B 11/U 11/U 4BQ 065/100 066/100 066/100 068/100 067/095 065/091 062/089 20/U 21/U 10/U 10/B 11/B 11/U 21/U BHK 064/100 061/100 062/097 063/097 064/092 059/089 058/085 02/T 21/U 10/U 11/B 11/B 11/U 11/U SHR 061/099 060/097 061/100 062/098 061/094 058/091 057/090 00/U 20/U 10/U 11/B 12/T 12/T 12/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday FOR ZONES 29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235. WY...Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday FOR ZONE 199. && $$ weather.gov/billings