Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
221 FXUS65 KBYZ 070720 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 120 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... Cyclonic NW flow remains over the region, w/ strong ridge along the Pacific coast. Yesterday`s shortwave has rotated eastward into the Dakotas, but there remains an axis of potential vorticity from north central MT thru the western part of our cwa. As a result, while we have seen drying over our central and east, there are lingering showers over our western mountains and even further north. This very weak activity should diminish over the next several hours as we begin to see rising heights from the west, but will monitor. Otherwise, potential for convection today will be reduced per warming mid levels and some boundary layer drying. We won`t be entirely w/o showers though (and perhaps a few weak t-storms) from late morning to early evening...mainly over our east and the southern mountains. Pwats expected to be around 3/4 of an inch in this area, and model soundings suggest enough surface warming to overcome an inversion at ~600mb. HREF shows capes ranging from 250-750 j/kg, highest east, but with very spotty potential for 40+ dbz. Add it all up, and there is confidence for cumulus development leading to isolated fairly shallow showers...w/ a few rumbles of thunder possible. Any early evening convection should dissipate before sunset. Tonight and Monday will be dry with rising heights associated with strong ridge anchored to our west. One more day with cooler than normal temps. Look for highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s today, then mid to upper 80s Monday (consistent w/ 700mb temps rising to 8-10C). Get ready, the heat is coming. JKL Tuesday through Sunday... Upper level ridging will persist through the extended, bringing warm and dry conditions. For Friday into the weekend, the pattern is expected to become more favorable for mid level moisture to move in, leading to low chances (<25%) of precipitation, mainly to the mountains. High temperatures are still expected to gradually increase into midweek, from upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday to upper 90s to low 100s Thursday. Currently, for locations along river valleys in the plains, there is a 50-90% chance of exceeding 100 Thursday. Then, highs are likely to remain in this range for Friday and Saturday, with a 40-60% chance of exceeding 100 each day over the same locations. By Sunday, with the return of moisture to the region, highs should decrease slightly into the 90s. Archer && .AVIATION... Thunderstorm potential will be much lower today. Expect isolated showers, mainly east of KBIL and over the southern mountains from late morning to early evening. A few weak thunderstorms are possible but confidence for a storm to impact a TAF site is quite low (<10%). VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours as we begin to see high pressure build from the west tonight. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 080 056/089 060/092 061/097 064/101 067/098 066/097 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 00/U 01/U LVM 080 049/087 055/090 056/096 059/098 060/097 059/095 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B HDN 080 052/089 055/092 057/097 060/102 062/100 062/098 1/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 10/U 10/U MLS 080 056/086 059/090 062/094 064/100 068/099 067/097 1/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 4BQ 079 054/086 058/090 059/094 063/099 068/099 067/099 2/T 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U BHK 078 053/083 056/087 057/089 060/095 064/097 063/095 2/T 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U SHR 077 049/086 053/089 054/094 059/099 062/098 061/098 2/T 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings