Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
013 FXUS65 KBYZ 141540 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 940 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .UPDATE... Web cams and observations showed areas of haze/smoke...mainly across the southern tier of the forecast area including Sheridan and Ekalaka. Smoke and haze was from numerous area wildfires and will likely continue into tonight. Updated forecast to expand the haze/smoke across the area. Low chances of convection will begin over the southern mountains this afternoon and spread E this evening. CAMS had some different solutions with the convection, showing some of it further N than forecast, but will watch trends to see if any changes are needed. Heat Advisory continues. Some high temps will be tempered by the haze/smoke, but confidence on where and how much they will be affected was low, so will not make any adjustments. Arthur && .DISCUSSION... Through Monday night... Today will feature continued hot weather with NBM giving most locations a 40-70% chance of getting a temperature over 100 degrees. A weak cold front will move through the region today bringing winds out of the northwest. This will bring down higher pressure from the north lowering temperatures into the high 80s to low 90s for tomorrow. Raised winds today blending with the NBM 90th percentile given ensemble indications and steep lapse rates of 7.5-8.5C/km across the region. Most areas will see wind gusts near 20 mph with higher values in the western gap areas. MinRH values will generally be in the teens today. The combination of hot temperatures, low RH values, and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire concerns today. Try to avoid causing a spark. Tomorrow will bring some relief as lower temperatures and higher dewpoints will increase MinRH values into the 20s. This evening, monsoon moisture will bring PWAT anomalies of around 150% of normal to locations along the Wyoming border. This will lead to a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Wyoming border. These storms are not expected to be severe. Torgerson Tuesday through Saturday... Models in good agreement as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature across our region through the week. The ridge axis will be west of our area (southern Idaho to Alberta) Tuesday, then slowly shift west the rest of the week. So expect temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday under NW flow, heating up into the 90s to near 100 for the latter part of the week. Overnight lows will range from mid 50s to lower 60s Tuesday night, to mainly mid 60s toward the end of the work week. At this time, the chance of hitting 100 only increases to around 15% over portions of our east later in the week. As for precipitation, weak monsoonal flow will provide some mid level moisture. However, this will generally translate to late day showers/storms over the mountains and along the WY/MT border while the lower elevations elsewhere remain mostly dry. Factors leading to severe storms (shear, MUCAPE) will be low so severe weather is not anticipated. Wind fields do not appear strong either, so despite the hot and dry weather, critical fire weather conditions may be limited. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Areas of haze and smoke will affect slantwise visibility. Thicker haze/smoke in KSHR area was causing IFR conditions and these are expected to persist into tonight...with brief breaks of higher conditions. There is a 20-40% chance for some general thunderstorms along the MT/WY border starting around 21z over the southwest mountains. Thunderstorms will bring localized MVFR and possible wind gusts to 40 kt. Most locations will see winds out of the northwest gusting near 20 kt with higher values in the 30s for locations in the western gap areas. Winds will decrease this evening. Expect areas of mountain obscuration through tonight. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 100 067/092 063/093 063/095 065/098 066/097 065/096 1/B 10/B 01/U 11/U 01/U 11/B 11/U LVM 096 059/093 054/093 055/093 058/096 060/095 058/094 2/T 11/B 12/T 11/U 12/T 12/T 11/U HDN 101 067/092 060/094 061/095 062/099 063/098 062/096 1/G 20/B 11/U 10/U 11/U 11/B 11/U MLS 098 066/088 062/090 063/090 065/095 065/096 065/094 0/H 10/U 11/U 10/U 00/U 11/U 11/U 4BQ 101 069/090 063/092 063/090 064/096 065/096 064/093 0/G 21/B 11/U 11/U 01/U 11/U 11/U BHK 098 062/086 058/086 058/086 059/092 062/092 062/090 0/H 00/U 11/U 10/U 00/U 11/U 11/U SHR 099 064/090 057/092 057/091 058/095 060/095 059/093 1/H 22/T 12/T 11/U 01/U 12/T 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Heat Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235. WY...Heat Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 199. && $$ weather.gov/billings