Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
965 FXUS65 KBYZ 110810 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 210 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday... Strong high pressure aloft will continue to bring hot temperatures today and Friday. Today should be a bit hotter than yesterday, and we expect many locations to reach triple digits. Though subtle, there are indications that Friday will be a touch (1-4F) cooler than today, mainly over our north, as we see a weak frontal push and shift to N-NE winds in the afternoon. However you slice it, we will be dealing with 100 degree temps the next two days, and thru the weekend. Have extended the Heat Advisory through Sunday. Please protect yourself and others from the heat! The following are today`s forecast highs and daily records at each of our airport climate stations. SITEFORECASTRECORD Billings 101 102 (1939) Livingston 98 98 (2002) Miles City 102 103 (2013) Sheridan 101 101 (1939) Baker 99 99 (2013) There are ongoing isolated showers along an axis from north of Miles City to Hammond, in a region of mid level frontogenesis associated with a weak shortwave. This activity should dissipate before 12z this morning. To our west, satellite imagery shows an area of what appears to be ACC over central ID and southwest MT, at the leading edge of an upstream weak shortwave in westerly flow aloft. High res models continue to show a risk of isolated t-storms this afternoon and evening, and the ACC is a noteworthy precursor. T-storms will be high-based and may produce erratic surface winds. Most convection will initiate over our west and track eastward in the evening, but the other area to watch is in Fallon County. Convergent axis may allow t-storms to develop here up thru northeast MT, but it is also possible that this particular area of initiation is north of our cwa. Shortwave finally passes late tonight and it is possible some light showers linger overnight. For Friday, there is another weak Pacific wave which should help to produce isolated afternoon t-storms again, but current indications suggest the focus should be in our south and far east. Hazy skies due to lofted smoke from wildfires to our west will be an increasing issue over the coming days. The Horse Gulch fire near Helena produced a significant smoke plume yesterday and has remained hot thus far during the night. In addition, there are numerous wildfires further west over the PacNW. A thick enough smoke cover could affect surface temps eventually. Something to monitor. JKL Saturday through Thursday... Over the weekend a high pressure system to our south will bring above normal heights and zonal flow to our area. This will continue our streak of near 100 degree heat. Even though these temperatures are hot, we are not expecting any record high temperatures to be set. As we move into early next work week the high will start to weaken as it moves east bringing slight relief from the heat. Monday and Tuesday will see temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than over the weekend with most locations in the low to mid 90s. Middle to late next week, ensembles and WPC clusters are showing good agreement in the high pressure and upper ridging returning. This is not yet reflected in NBM temperatures which is worth keeping an eye on going forward. This pattern would lead to temperatures climbing again well into the 90s with 100 degree heat possible. Be sure to limit time outdoors in extreme heat and check your car for children and pets before walking away. Next week it looks like we may move into a monsoonal pattern with southwest flow for our area. Ensembles are showing positive PWAT anomalies moving into the region leading to daily precipitation chances for the higher terrain. Currently, the GFS ENS is showing higher precipitation amounts for the lower elevations and lower totals for the higher terrain than the ECMWF. Low elevation rainfall is not expected to be significant. The greatest concern will be the possibility of lightning strikes from these daily thunderstorms causing a fire in the higher elevations during a hot and dry period. Torgerson && .AVIATION... Expect widespread VFR over the next 24 hours under strong high pressure aloft. Slant range visibility may be affected at times by lofted smoke from wildfires to our west. Isolated high-based thunderstorms capable of producing erratic surface winds are expected this afternoon & evening. The probability of a t-storm affecting a TAF site is very low (<10%). JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 101 067/098 066/100 067/099 066/094 064/093 063/094 2/T 21/U 00/U 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/U LVM 098 058/097 057/099 060/095 060/091 056/091 056/092 2/T 11/U 11/U 11/B 12/T 11/U 11/U HDN 102 061/100 063/101 064/100 063/095 061/094 060/095 1/G 21/U 10/G 10/B 11/B 11/B 11/U MLS 102 066/100 066/098 066/098 065/093 064/091 063/090 1/G 21/U 10/U 10/U 10/B 11/U 11/U 4BQ 102 066/101 066/099 069/100 066/095 064/091 063/090 0/G 22/T 10/U 10/B 11/B 21/B 11/U BHK 100 063/099 062/096 063/096 062/091 059/087 058/085 2/T 22/T 21/U 11/U 11/B 11/U 11/U SHR 101 059/101 061/099 063/098 062/093 059/091 057/091 0/G 22/T 10/U 11/B 12/T 22/T 12/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Sunday evening FOR ZONES 29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235. WY...Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Sunday evening FOR ZONE 199. && $$ weather.gov/billings