013
FXUS61 KBUF 101801
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
201 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe weather will be fairly widespread through early this
evening...as the remnants of Beryl are helping to generate rotating
thunderstorms and drenching rains. As the remains of the tropical
system slowly move away tonight...the activity will diminish to
scattered shower activity. Fair dry weather will briefly return
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...Significant Rains AND increased severe weather threat from
the remnants of Beryl into tonight...

...Flood Watch in effect for the eastern Lake Ontario region
this afternoon and this evening...

A highly sheared environment within a tropical airmass will be in
place through at least the first part of tonight...as the remnants
of Beryl will slowly move through. The environment will support
rotating thunderstorms which could lead to scattered tornadoes.
There will also be areas that pick up multiple inches of rain...
especially east of Lake Ontario where a flood watch remains in
effect. A tornado watch is also in effect for the entire region.

The widespread convection will gradually die off tonight...but not
before likely generating more damaging winds during the early
evening hours. The greatest risk early this evening will be east of
Lake Ontario. Otherwise it will remain warm and muggy.

While a few showers will be possible on Thursday...shortwave ridging
building in behind the departing tropical remnants will help to
provide most of the region with fair weather. It will stay on the
humid side...but fortunately it will be a few degrees cooler than
today.

Mainly fair dry weather is then anticipated for Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday and Friday night the aforementioned surface ridge will remain
draped across our region, while a weakening mid level trough stuck
across the central Great Lakes Friday, eventually moves by just to
our north and west Friday night. Expecting a mainly dry day and
night, however cannot rule out a scattered shower or two along
any lake breeze circulations during peak diurnal heating.
Otherwise, temps Friday will rebound some with highs mainly in
the low to mid 80s, with upper 70s higher terrain and North
Country. Lows Friday night mainly in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Guidance continues to advertise a dry first half of the weekend with
ridging surface and aloft in control. This area of high pressure
will also keep any precipitation associated with a weak wave riding
northeast along the Atlantic seaboard to our east. Mainly dry
weather expected for the bulk of Sunday as well, however a trough
approaching from the central Great Lakes may produce a few scattered
shower/storms later Sunday as moisture and instability start to
increase in advance of this feature. Best precip chances will be
across western NY. It will be very warm with highs well into the 80s
both days, along with humid conditions persisting.

Our weather will become a bit more unsettled for the first part of
the new work week as a couple mid level waves and a surface cold
front cross the region. This will bring better shower and storm
chances, especially if any of these aforementioned features can be
timed with peak diurnal heating. Otherwise, expect very warm and
humid conditions to persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main impacts to aviation wil be the fairly widespread strong to
severe thunderstorm activity into the early evening hours. These
storms could produce tornadic activity...especially over the Finger
Lakes region. Outside of the IFR to MVFR conditions in the
storms...mainly VFR weather is expected.

As we push into tonight...cigs across the region will drop to
between 700-1500 feet. The areal coverage of the storms will
diminish in the process. After 06z...cigs will be in the IFR to LIFR
categories. These low cigs will persist through Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
well inland from the lakes.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...VFR to MVFR with scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure associated with the tropical remnants of Beryl will
cross our region, and this combined with high pressure to the north
will result in a tightening pressure gradient. Northeasterly winds
will increase, especially on Lake Ontario today. Small craft
headlines will remain for the western two-thirds of the Lake Ontario
waters, and the Lower Niagara River as outlined below. There also
will be several rounds of rain with embedded thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce gusty winds.

The pressure gradient will weaken tonight as the remnant low weakens
with winds diminishing.

Beryl`s remnant low will exit northeast across southern Ontario
Thursday with winds shifting to southwest and freshening to 15 to 20
knots with waves possibly reaching 4 feet on the eastern end of
Lake Erie.

Quiet marine conditions are expected to return Thursday night and
persist into the weekend as high pressure build into the eastern
Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ001.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...TMA