776
FXUS61 KBUF 110240
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1040 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Improving conditions can be expected tonight...as the remnants
of Beryl will move through and east of our region. While some
lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday...the trend towards fair weather will continue. Looking
ahead to Friday and Saturday...it will be very warm and
moderately humid as weak high pressure will be in control.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to taper off
overnight as more stable air will circulate into the region
from the west. This will leave mainly fair weather
overnight...but a wealth of low clouds will persist and possibly
fog.

While a few showers will be possible on Thursday...shortwave ridging
building in behind the departing tropical remnants will help to
provide most of the region with fair weather. It will stay on the
humid side...but fortunately it will be a few degrees cooler than
today.

Mainly fair dry weather is then anticipated for Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Fair dry weather will be found across the region on Friday...as an
exiting shortwave ridge and its attendant sfc high will remain in
control. It will be warm and moderately humid with temperatures
averaging just a few degrees above mid July normals.

While a shortwave will cross to the north of the region Friday night
and Saturday...sfc based ridging should be able to muscle out
continued fair weather to start the weekend. It will become warmer
and more humid though...so more uncomfortable conditions can be
expected. Max temps on Saturday are forecast to be in the mid to
upper 80s.

A more pronounced shortwave and attendant mid level trough will
cross the Lower Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night. This should
support at least scattered shower and thunderstorm activity...but
this is NOT expected to be a washout by any means. Otherwise...it
will be on the sultry side of normal on Sunday with max temps mainly
in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad...low amplitude longwave trough will be over the Great Lakes
region during this period. Despite the suppressed hgt field...a
westerly flow of very warm air will persist. This will maintain
temperatures that will average well above normal for Monday and
Tuesday before a little relief arrives in the wake of a passing cold
front Tuesday night.

In regards to pcpn...the trough will allow for mainly diurnally
enhanced convection each day...although the vast majority of the
time should be rain free.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
In the wake of a few leftover showers...cigs will drop to LIFR
to IFR levels for the vast majority of the region.

The LIFR to IFR cigs will persist through at least part of Thursday
morning...then cigs will slowly improve to MVFR levels for the
midday and early afternoon before returning to VFR levels in the
afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
well inland from the lakes.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...VFR to MVFR with scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeasterlies on Lake Ontario have diminished considerably,
allowing the small craft headlines to be dropped for those
waters. Meanwhile on Lake Erie...mainly fresh southwesterlies
will be in place into Thursday.

The sfc pressure gradient will then relax throughout the region
Thursday and especially Thursday night...as high pressure from
the Upper Great Lakes will move into the region. This will
encourage winds and waves to lower through the period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...Apffel/RSH