193
FXUS61 KBUF 121452
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1052 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will build across the region today and
this weekend supporting mostly dry and fair weather. Warm and
moderately humid weather will return this weekend with highs
ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Per the 12z KBUF sounding, there remains low level moisture
from the remnants of Beryl this morning. Valley fog has mixed
out, while cumulus clouds are developing across the hill tops.

High pressure over the upper Great Lakes will continue to build
east today through tonight, helping to further clear out the
remaining low level clouds across the forecast area and support
dry, fair weather. Today will be warmer due to the increased
amounts of sunshine, with highs in the low to mid 80s.

A shortwave trough will ripple across southern Ontario and Quebec
Saturday with zonal flow setting up across the lower Great Lakes by
Saturday night. Meanwhile at the surface, ridging across the Lower
Great Lakes will support fair weather for the start of the weekend,
with a few afternoon showers and storms possible well inland from
both lakes. Temperatures and humidity levels will be on the rise
creating warm sticky conditions Saturday. Highs Saturday will peak
in the 80s with the warmest temperatures across the Genesee Valley
and south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure surface and aloft builds firmly across the region
Saturday night providing dry weather across the bulk of the area
that will last through the second half of the weekend. Weak
shortwave trough and associated surface warm frontal segment will
then approach from the west late Sunday, then move across the region
Sunday night. While there is an outside chance these features may
produce a scattered shower or storm across far western NY by late in
the day Sunday, the better chance for a few scattered
showers/isolated rumble of thunder will be Sunday night as these
elements move across western and northcentral NY. Not expecting too
much in the way of coverage or rainfall as forcing and deeper
moisture will be lacking. Otherwise, following lows mainly in the
low to mid 60s Saturday night, it will be very warm Sunday with
highs topping out in the mid and upper 80s for most, accompanied by
our typical summertime humidity levels. Warmer and more humid
airmass advects in across the region Sunday night, which will make
for a fairly uncomfortable night for sleeping as lows only fall back
into the upper 60s to low 70s for most, while dew point temps climb
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
More in the way of unsettled weather is expected to open the period
as fast-moving successive weak shortwaves pass through broad upper
level troughing across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the
first half of the new work week. While these features could spark
off a few scattered showers/storms at anytime as they pass through
our area, increased instability owed to strong diurnal heating will
be the key to better chances for showers and storms both Monday and
Tuesday as again moisture and forcing with these features alone is
not overly impressive. In other words, if any of these shortwaves
crosses the area during the hours of peak heating, expect increased
coverage of showers and storms. Very warm conditions will persist
Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in the 80s. Humidity will
approach oppressive levels as dew points climb into the upper 60s
and lower 70s.

Long range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that a much
more robust shortwave will then dive southeastward across the Great
Lakes midweek helping to deepen the trough over the region, while
also supporting a surface cold front that will cross the area during
this time. Timing of the surface cold front at this point looks to
be sometime Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday, which
will help to limit severe weather potential with the expected mainly
nocturnal passage of the boundary. Expansive Canadian sourced
surface high pressure centered over the northern Plains/upper
Midwest is then expected to ridge across the lower Great Lakes in
the wake of the fropa bringing pronounced drying for the latter part
of the work week. The initial cold frontal passage will knock our
temps down some for Wednesday, before a moisture starved secondary
cold front pushes across the region opening the door to a much more
refreshing airmass for the latter part of the work week. In terms of
temperatures, expect highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday
with some relief in humidity levels. Highs Thursday may only be a
couple degrees lower on the thermometer, however dew points solidly
in the 50s will make it `feel` much more tolerable outside.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lingering low level moisture and daytime heating has resulted in
cumulus clouds to form with cloud bases between 1-3k feet. This
may produce periods of MVFR, mainly near the hill tops and east
of Lake Ontario today.

Drier air will continue to infiltrate the area supporting all
TAF sites to return to VFR by late morning/midday. VFR
conditions will then last through tonight as high pressure lies
overhead.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Just a slight chance for afternoon
thunderstorms across parts of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build east across the lower Great
Lakes today relaxing the pressure gradient and supporting light
winds and waves today. As high pressure remains overhead throughout
the weekend, light winds and waves will persist.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ/HSK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...EAJ/HSK
MARINE...EAJ