295
FXUS61 KBUF 130525
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
125 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will build across the region through this
weekend supporting mostly dry and fair weather. Warm and moderately
humid weather is expected this weekend with highs ranging in the mid
80s to the low 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid level trough is centered over the Great Lakes region late
this evening as a deep southwest flow continues across the
region. Scattered showers continue to cross through the upper
Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes as a humid airmass remains
in place. These showers will continue to slowly fade through the
overnight hours. The mid level trough will move north of the region
overnight while high pressure settles across the region. There
remains a light, warm, southerly flow which will keep temperatures
mild overnight. Valley fog will form across the western Southern
Tier and Black River Valley late tonight into Saturday morning.

Surface high pressure remains across the forecast area Saturday and
Saturday night. A westerly flow aloft will drive slightly drier and
cooler air into the region Saturday. This will result in less
cumulus and a low chance of showers, mainly confined to the Finger
Lakes region Saturday afternoon. Temperatures and heat indices will
be very close to today, Friday. Dry weather will continue through
Saturday night. Patchy fog is possible Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will hold onto fair weather Sunday, with summer`s
warmth in the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday night and into Monday a shortwave within zonal flow will pass
across our region, interacting with an atmosphere with MUCAPE values
1000 to 2000 J/KG to produce showers and thunderstorms. There is
still some uncertainty to the timing of this convective shortwave
among various model outputs. Lake breeze circulations Monday
afternoon will likely develop additional storms pulsing up through
the early evening hours.

Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday
night with instability lingering within a still moist environment.

It will be warm this period, where the inland Genesee Valley and
Finger Lakes region may reach 90F both Sunday and Monday. Southwest
flow off the Lakes will likely leave the shoreline and inland areas
such as Buffalo and Watertown in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moist, southwesterly flow Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a robust
mid level shortwave trough will maintain the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Increasing wind shear Tuesday and Wednesday, along
with building CAPE aloft will bring the potential for strong
thunderstorms with strong winds and hail potential. The cold front
will sweep across our region Wednesday, bringing a drier airmass,
and more comfortable temperatures, with highs Thursday and Friday in
the mid to upper 70s with much less humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As surface high pressure slides across the region early this morning
and through the rest of the day today, VFR conditions persist across
the area. Outside of this, valley fog is likely to develop across
the western Soutehrn Tier and Black River Valley, restricting mainly
KJHW to IFR visibilities into the late morning hours.

Today will feature mainly VFR conditions with diurnal cumulus
developing in the late morning hours today. There is a slight
chances for afternoon showers and storms well inland of the lakes
across the Southern Tier and the Finger Lakes region.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Just a slight chance for afternoon
thunderstorms across parts of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with scattered thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR to MVFR,
with a chance of IFR or below in thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build east across the lower Great
Lakes this weekend, resulting in quiet conditions with light winds
and limited waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...EAJ/HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/TMA