680
FXUS61 KBUF 281022
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
622 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move east across the area today, producing a
few more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
coverage of rain will be this morning east of Lake Ontario. High
pressure will then build into the eastern Great Lakes tonight
through Sunday, with a dry and less humid finish to the weekend.
Another cold front will cross the area late Monday through Tuesday,
bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery showing the majority of the area dry early this
morning, with just a few scattered showers east of Lake Ontario. The
pre-frontal trough is still upstream, and dewpoints will rise into
the lower 70s again this morning. Weak forcing and ample low level
moisture may produce a few scattered showers later this morning
across Western NY, but much of the time will be rain free.

A pre-frontal trough will continue to move east across the area this
morning through early afternoon, with the majority of the convection
found along and ahead of this feature. The pre-frontal trough will
begin to encounter modest diurnal instability by midday, allowing
for an increase in showers and a few thunderstorms along and ahead
of it. Some of this may clip areas from Allegany County northeast
across the Finger Lakes to the southern Tug Hill region for a few
hours, then most of the more active weather will move into eastern
NY later this afternoon.

Behind the pre-frontal trough, a southwest breeze will support
expanding stable lake shadows ENE of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this
afternoon, with dry weather and increasing sunshine within the lake
shadows. High-res CAMS guidance suggests a convergence zone will
develop along the northern edge of the Lake Erie lake breeze,
supporting a band of cloud cover and a chance of a few scattered
showers from the Niagara Frontier to Rochester this afternoon.

Any remaining showers and isolated thunder will end early this
evening. High pressure will then build east across the Great Lakes
overnight, bringing clearing skies. Some fog will develop,
especially across the river valleys of the Southern Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A sfc high moving into the region, centering over the western &
central NY areas during the afternoon, will result in fair dry
weather for Sunday. Mostly sunny conditions will start the day, but
inland fair weather cumulus clouds will be possible during the
afternoon. Areas closer to the lakes will remain sunnier with light
onshore winds. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s south
of Lake Ontario, to the low to upper 70s for areas southeast and
east of Lake Ontario.

Sunday night will remain dry with the sfc high sliding to the east,
which will also result in increasing warm air advection over the
region. Increasing Td values and low temperatures overnight only
down to around the mid 60s to near 70 south of Lake Ontario will
start to give a more humid feel to the air by Monday morning. East
of Lake Ontario, where warm air advection is later to start,
temperates overnight should remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Clouds will increase later in the night ahead of an approaching warm
front associated with the next system tracking into the Central
Great Lakes by Monday morning.

With the forecast area in the warm sector of the approaching system,
temperatures and moisture with increase on Monday with a notable
warm and humid feel to the air. Showers will start to develop in the
afternoon as lake breeze boundaries develop and as a pre-frontal
trough approaches the area. Showers will first develop over WNY and
expand east. There is still timing uncertainty among guidance for
the incoming trough, but it looks like by late afternoon there
should be a fair amount of showers and thunderstorms for areas south
of Lake Ontario, with more scattered shower/storms east of Lake
Ontario. Increased instability within the warm sector of the system
will increase the potential for thunderstorms, though it doesn`t
look like there is much shear as of now. PWat values approaching
2.00" and the forcing from the trough will provide the potential for
heavy rainfall within showers/storms that develop. A warm humid day
in store for Monday with afternoon temperatures reaching the low 80s
to low 90s.

Monday night, as the trough continues east, additional showers and
storms can be expected for areas east of Lake Ontario, again with
the instability and high PWat values, along with the passing trough
and the approaching cold front, showers/storms that do develop will
have the potential for heavy rainfall. There may be a break in the
showers/storms for a few hours between the passing trough and the
approaching cold front overnight Monday night. The bulk of the
showers/storms will be associated with the pre-frontal trough and
less so with the cold front as it approaches from the west. The cold
front should be on the doorstep of WNY between daybreak and the
morning commute. Still some uncertainty in timing for the front
still as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will cross our region late Monday night and early
Tuesday. This timing of the cold front passage will not be the
greatest for severe thunderstorms, with more widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms ending from west to east with the passage of
the shortwave trough aloft.

Wednesday through Friday broad upper level troughing will establish
across the Great Lakes region. Subtle shortwave troughs passing
through the flow will trigger shower and thunderstorm potential but
lacking much instability and initially much synoptic moisture
chances for storms will remain low...with the favored time during
the afternoon and evening. Dewpoints Wednesday through Friday will
be more tolerable, ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A pre-frontal trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes this
morning, with a few more scattered showers. Most of the thunder will
remain north of the area this morning across eastern Ontario. CIGS
will run VFR/MVFR for lower elevations with some IFR across higher
terrain this morning.

A weak cold front will move east across the area this afternoon, but
the majority of deep moisture and instability will already be east
of the area. Expect just a few additional spotty showers or an
isolated thunderstorm, mainly across Central NY and east of Lake
Ontario this afternoon. Most areas will improve to VFR by early
afternoon.

Dry weather will return tonight with high pressure building east
across the Great Lakes. VFR will prevail in most areas, with some
local IFR in patchy fog across the valleys of the Southern Tier,
Finger Lakes, and east of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly from
late afternoon through Monday night.

Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly
early.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions
on the northeast end of Lake Ontario through mid morning. A cold
front will then move east across the eastern Great Lakes later
today, with winds becoming southwest on both lakes. Expect a
moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today into this evening,
but winds and waves are expected to remain just below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

High pressure will then build over the eastern Great Lakes late
tonight and Sunday, with light winds and minimal wave action for the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock