408
FXUS61 KBUF 131855
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will ridge across the region through
Sunday, resulting in mostly dry and fair weather during the
weekend. Additionally, expect warm and moderately humid weather
with highs ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s. Active
weather will return Sunday night with a risk of showers and
thunderstorms lasting through Wednesday as a series of weak
disturbances moves through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A broad ridge of high pressure will ridge across the region,
resulting in mainly rain free weather for the weekend. There`s a
slight chance of instability driven showers across the Western
Southern Tier and in Lewis County this afternoon. After this,
dry weather will prevail tonight and the vast majority of
Sunday. A mid-level trough will approach from the west late in
the day Sunday, possibly sparking a few showers or thunderstorms
across far Western NY just before sunset.

Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side this
weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday. Good
radiational cooling underneath the surface high tonight with
lows in the 60s and patchy fog possible in the Western Southern
Tier river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night a few storms will diminish across the region with the
loss of daytime heating. Later in the night there will be the threat
of a decaying MCS tracking from MI and across Lake Erie and SW NYS,
one that could bring additional showers and thunderstorms late, and
into the early Monday morning hours.

Monday and Tuesday will feature the threat of storms. Depending upon
the track of the Sunday night MCS, and how much clouds start the day
across our region Monday which will influence daytime instability
there should still be enough instability, and developing lake breeze
boundaries to bring scattered to likely showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and deep into the evening hours. Tuesday will
be influenced by a prefrontal trough that will provide lift for
additional storms through our region, as well as maintain storms
into the evening and overnight hours. Both days will feature a
decent wind flow aloft in the lower levels, as well as increasing
CAPE of several thousand J/KG to support strong storms.

Monday and Tuesday will be very warm and sticky with temperatures in
the mid 80s to around 90F. Nights will be warm and muggy, with
overnight lows in the lower 70s across the Lake Plain/Finger Lakes,
and mid/upper 60s across inland higher terrain. Tuesday night behind
multiple rounds of convection will have slightly lower
temperatures...with most areas dropping into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Wednesday the surface cold front will either make or complete its
passage across our area...with the medium range guidance packages
still exhibiting some differences in timing. The exact timing of the
front will be key to determining how much severe potential will
exist during Wednesday...with a slower passage allowing for more
time for daytime destabilization and therefore a greater risk for a
few stronger to severe storms...with this greatest along our
southeastern periphery. In contrast...a faster passage would likely
preclude much in the way of destabilization and consequently severe
risk. Given the uncertainty...for now have maintained a mix of
chance to low-end likely PoPs during Wednesday. As for temps...highs
on Wednesday should generally range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

By Wednesday evening the main cold front should be well south and
east of our area...with a weaker secondary cold front then
potentially crossing our area later Wednesday night and Thursday.
Cannot completely rule out another couple showers with this second
boundary as it crosses our region...however given the time frame and
limited accompanying moisture will keep PoPs below the slight chance
threshold for now. Otherwise sprawling Canadian high pressure will
gradually extend eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast
through the rest of this period and bring a return to cooler and
more comfortable weather. Expect surface dewpoints to fall into the
50s later Wednesday and remain there through Saturday...while highs
pull back to the lower to mid 70s Thursday...then only gradually
climb back to the upper 70s to lower 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread VFR flight conditions for the vast majority of the
18Z TAF cycle. few-sct cumulus this afternoon with cloud bases
around 4k feet. River valley fog is expected again tonight,
which may bring a period of IFR or lower conditions to the KJHW
terminal. Any fog will dissipate by mid-morning Sunday, with VFR
conditions through 00Z Monday. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon across Western NY.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR to
MVFR, with a chance of IFR or below in thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build east across the lower Great
Lakes this weekend, resulting in quiet conditions with light winds
and limited waves. A generally weak pressure gradient will
result in quiet conditions through Monday night, then winds
will pick up a bit on Tuesday in response to a trough of low
pressure.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/EAJ
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/TMA