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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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880 FXUS61 KBUF 170549 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 149 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and a few thunderstorms today will come to an end from west to east this afternoon as a cold front slides across the region. Much drier air behind this front will lower the humidity to comfortable levels, with air temperatures Thursday and Friday a few degrees below normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Subsidence in the wake of an exiting MCV will combine with sfc based ridging to provide generally fair uneventful weather across the region through tonight. A couple of NUISANCE low top showers though cannot be ruled out within a mid-upper level cyclonic flow. A cold front will move across the region during Wednesday, producing some showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Greatest possibilities for thunder will be the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario where greater daytime insolation and developing CAPE (MUCAPE of 500 J/KG) will be realized. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A longwave trough will enter into our region Wednesday night with showers ending across eastern zones, and clouds thinning. Some patches of fog will be possible with still a fair amount of humidity to start the night. A much drier airmass will build across our region later Wednesday night through Friday, with a light flow across the region. This will promote fair weather for the period. Though temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler Thursday than Wednesday, the dewpoints at least 10 degrees cooler will be more noticeable. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... This will be a spectacular stretch of weather, with a broad ridge of high pressure expanding across the region. A weak cold front will drop southward across the region Sunday, but its passage should largely be rain-free with possibly an isolated shower. Otherwise, there`s good model agreement providing high confidence in rain- free weather through Monday. A weak trough will approach the area Tuesday, bringing a small chance of showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near normal with daytime highs averaging in the mid 70s to lower 80s and nighttime lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For the 06Z TAFS mainly VFR flight conditions, with a few showers across NW NYS, including near the KIAG and KBUF airfields. This activity out ahead of a cold front will expand towards the Southern Tier through the early morning hours. Ceilings of MVFR or IFR are also likely across the Southern Tier this morning. A cold front will push across the region today, with again showers and a few thunderstorms forming. This activity will end from west to east through the afternoon hours behind the cold front. Much drier air returning to the region tonight will return VFR flight conditions, with a light northern wind. Some river valley for is likely tonight across the Southern Tier, possibly expanding towards KJHW. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... A cold front will cross the Lower Lakes today from west to east, with showers and a few thunderstorms upon it. Winds will veer to northwesterly tonight, with 10 knots or so on Lake Erie, and perhaps reaching 15 or so knots on Lake Ontario. This will yield waves that may eclipse small craft thresholds on the south and southeastern waters of Lake Ontario, for which a small craft advisory may be needed for tonight. HIgh pressure will then build across the Lakes later tonight through the end of the work week with a light wind flow. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH/Thomas SHORT TERM...Apffel/Thomas LONG TERM...Apffel/Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas