106
FXUS61 KBTV 120207
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1007 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will keep scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday with temperatures
running a below seasonal averages. Conditions become drier
Tuesday through mid week as temperatures rise to around
seasonal averages. A few scattered showers will be possible late
this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1002 PM EDT Sunday...Outside some small temperature
adjustments to better reflect the latest observations, no other
changes were needed to the forecast. Shower activity continues
to linger across the forecast area, though weaker compared to
earlier in the night.

Previous Discussion...An upper level circulation is tracking
along southern Canada and the North Country bringing scattered
for valleys with more numerous showers for higher terrain. The
cold core of the low is providing for steep lapse rates support
some convective elements with mainly isolated thunderstorms
mixed in through tonight. With flow turning west/northwesterly
some upslope showers will likely continue especially in the
northern Green Mountains. Temperatures will remain cool through
tonight with lows generally in the 50s. Temperatures are
expected to rebound Monday as skies clear out allowing for more
sunshine; highs will generally be in the 70s. Another night of
lows generally in the 50s tomorrow night with drier air cutting
off northwesterly flow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 406 PM EDT Sunday...A mid to upper level shortwave will cross
the forecast area Tuesday, allowing for a pop up shower across the
terrain (10-20% chance), but for the most part we are anticipating
dry conditions with perhaps some fair weather cumulus across the
forecast area as high pressure noses in from the Great Lakes.
Temperatures at the 925mb temperatures will be in the 15 to 19
degree C range, and there will be a north/northwesterly flow
throughout the day, resulting in seasonable highs in the mid to
upper 70s, with warmest conditions centering around the wider
valleys (St. Lawrence, Champlain, and Connecticut River valleys
primarily). Tuesday night, pressure will increase across the
forecast area, and lows will also be fairly seasonable in the 50s
and lower 60s. There may be some patchy fog developing in the
typical valley spots, depending on how clear skies become as well as
how much winds diminish. Otherwise, quiet night overall.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 406 PM EDT Sunday...Our area will be stuck between upper level
cyclonic rotation to the east and ridging to the west. Chances of
showers will persist each afternoon through the end of the week.
Shower chances will be 10-30% Wednesday and Friday with the main
focus on terrain and the Northeast Kingdom. A particularly potent
shortwave will slide south through the region on Thursday, so
showers and thunderstorms are most likely Thursday afternoon (20-50%
chance of precip) thanks to the additional forcing. There remains
quite a bit of discrepancy for the weekend weather as models
have different ideas of the timing of our next low pressure
system, so we have continued with chance PoPs. Temperatures for
the long term period will be seasonable in the upper 70s to
lower 80s for highs and mid 50s to mid 60s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday... A mix of VFR/MVFR should be expected with
scattered rain showers ongoing. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm with these showers given steep lapse rates. Tonight
best chances of IFR will be at SLK/MPV especially if a shower
moves over the terminal. Elsewhere, showers will become
increasingly isolated, so a mix of VFR/MVFR is anticipated.
More showers are possible Monday with a similar setup with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Boyd