114
FXUS61 KBTV 152344
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
744 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Some showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon before
tapering off later this evening, with drier conditions expected
tomorrow as high pressure builds in. Unsettled conditions return for
the weekend, with chances for showers and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

As of 740 PM EDT Thursday...500mb height rises meant that we
were largely bystanders to strong and severe convection south
and east of our area this afternoon. There were a few heavy
downpours and thunderstorms across Northeast Kingdom and Rutland
county, but have generally been garden variety in nature with
manageable rainfall rates. Overall, no weather concerns through
this evening with the loss of daytime heating further decreasing
the chance for storms. Otherwise, western Canadian wildfire
smoke aloft should make for yet another vibrant sunset.

Previous discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been
struggling to develop this afternoon with some 500mb height
rises and increasing subsidence across the region. Any shower
activity will dwindle down as we head into the evening and
overnight hours. With light and variable winds, fog development
seems likely across some of the climatologically favored river
valleys, especially in locations that see any rainfall this
afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the 60s, with some mid 50s
across the higher terrain.

Heading into tomorrow, high pressure continues to build in overhead
which will bring some drier weather to the region. Temperatures will
warm into the upper 70s and 80s, with upper 80s expected across the
broader valleys. Although widespread precipitation is not expected
across the region, a isolated shower or two across (particularly
across the higher terrain) cannot be ruled out. An Air Quality Alert
is in effect for Vermont for Friday due to fine particulate matter
from wildfire smoke. Additional information regarding air quality
and guidance can be found from the NY State Department of
Environmental Conservation and Vermont Agency of Natural Resources. A
fairly quiet night will be expected across the region tomorrow
before the next system moves into the region, with low temperatures
in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 PM EDT Thursday...We`ll see increasing chances for showers
on Saturday, particularly across the St Lawrence Valley and
Adirondacks, as an upper low slowly pushes eastward across the Great
Lakes. Moisture will increase on south/southwest flow, so expect
showers will become fairly numerous across northern NY during the
daylight hours Saturday. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible as
well. Further east, there`s less forcing, so any showers should
remain more scattered in nature; indeed, some portions of VT could
well remain dry for a good part of the day. Still, can`t rule out
some rain in any one location, so have at least 30-50% PoPs for most
areas at some point Saturday afternoon/evening. Highs will be
seasonable, generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will be on the
muggy side Saturday night, as most spots will remain in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 401 PM EDT Thursday...Unsettled weather will persist through
the first part of next week, and starting to note that heavy rain is
looking a bit more likely, particularly Monday/Monday night. The
trough/surface low will continue to slowly trundle eastward through
the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night, then cross our region on
Monday/Monday night, along with a frontal boundary. While PWATs are
still not expected to be exceedingly high (by comparison to other
events this summer; they`ll still be 90th percentile, upwards of
1.75 inches), moisture does look to deepen as the low/trough/front
push through. Warm cloud depths approaching 12 kft, deep layer moist
adiabatic lapse rates, and small Corfidi vectors all point toward
efficient rain makers and potential heavy rainfall rates. Highest
chances would be late Sunday night through Monday/Monday night, and
note probabilities for 24-hr totals of 1+ inch have increased.
Likewise, deterministic guidance have some heavier rainfall axes in
NY/NE, with 48-hr totals of 1.5 to 3+ inches in some spots. There`s
considerable disagreement on where these potential heavier rainfall
amounts would be however, but with a slow moving upper trough,
frontal boundary, and a tropical source of moisture lingering well
off the East Coast, we will need to continue to watch trends
closely.

For the most part, the worst of the rainfall looks to exit by
Tuesday, and drier conditions are expected for mid week, though a
few showers may linger as the upper trough remains close by. with
ample cloud cover, temperatures will remain in the 70s to around 80
for Sunday and Monday, then turning cooler after the frontal
passage. Overnights will be noticeably more comfortable after the
front moves through as well, changing from lows in the 60s to lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
all terminals this evening. Isolated storms moving south of
Rutland county will lead to VCTS conditions for KRUT through
01z. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected across all terminals
for the remainder of the evening into the overnight hours, aside
from a passing shower. Winds trend light and variable
overnight, which will allow for some fog formation at some of
the more climatologically favored sites such as KSLK and
KMPV, which will dissipate towards towards 12Z. All terminals
trend VFR after 12z Friday through the end of the TAF period.
Western Canadian wildfire smoke aloft is not expected to result
in visibility restrictions at this time.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Chai/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Chai