553
FXUS61 KBTV 011735
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
135 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
throughout much of today as a series of fronts traverse the region.
Dry weather prevails through Wednesday before shower chances
increase later this week, with seasonable temperatures throughout the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Tuesday...Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this morning into the afternoon as a
series of fronts traverse across the region. Currently, a warm front
continues to push through, with areas of showers across the region
this morning with the cold front expected to arrive later this
afternoon. While several rounds of showers are expected, there is
still some uncertainty as to if skies will clear ahead of the cold
front and how much instability will be available later this
afternoon for convective development. A few SPC continues to
maintain a Marginal Risk of severe weather across southern portions
of the forecast area, with a few stronger storms possible.

Behind the cold front, cooler and drier conditions will filter into
the region as winds become more northwesterly. Overnight low
temperatures look to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the
region, with portions of the broader valleys dropping into the mid
60s. The cooler and drier conditions will continue into Wednesday,
with a brief period of high pressure nosing into the region. High
temperatures Wednesday will warm into the 80s, with mostly sunny
skies expected by the afternoon making for a pleasant day across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night and Thursday will feature
some showers with possible thunderstorms as an upper level trough
crosses the area along with upper level shortwave energy as well.
Minimum temperatures will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s
Wednesday night followed by maximum temperatures ranging from the
mid 70s to mid 80s on Thursday. Best chance for showers will be
during the day Thursday with best vorticity advection during that
time, and with daytime heating will have some modest instability and
have mention of thunderstorms as well. As upper level trough moves
into our area, a cold core aloft will be over head and this will not
be favorable for strong to severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night onwards will start out with
below normal temperatures, but trend back above normal Saturday
through Monday. Showers will diminish Thursday evening as the
shortwave passes to the east and we lose daytime heating. Surface
high pressure begins to build in on Friday and bring an end to the
rain chances. Dry weather should prevail through Saturday before
shower chances increase for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z WEDNESDAY...Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will persist through 22z this afternoon. Generally
anticipate VFR conditions outside of any precipitation, but MVFR
ceilings/visibility will be possible in showers. Low clouds
should mostly dissipate after sunset, with mid/high clouds to
remain most persistent in southern areas. Patchy fog will be
possible late tonight/early Wednesday. Confidence was not high
enough to include in the TAF at this time, but best chances for
any restrictions would be at KMPV. Southwest winds 5-10 kt with
gusts 15-20 kt this afternoon, then gusts subsiding after
sunset.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hastings