366
FXUS61 KBTV 131919
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
319 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon will
diminish this evening for a quiet, yet mild and foggy night. Hot
temperatures up to the lower 90s are once again expected Sunday
through Tuesday along with increasing humidity, before a cold front
on Wednesday brings another round of rainfall to the region.
Following the frontal passage, a return of cooler and less humid air
is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...A modest mid-level shortwave
passing north of the Canadian border combined with our continued
humid airmass was enough to spark some showers and thunderstorms
off the lake breeze this morning which drifted into Vermont and
intensified to just below severe limits earlier this afternoon.
As of writing this, lightning has become much more isolated to
nearly none, but scattered showers continue to shift eastward
through eastern Vermont. This activity should continue east of
the region while waning through sunset and a quiet yet muggy
night is expected thereafter. Fog is once again likely in the
favored river valleys after midnight through sunrise, and lows
will be similar to last night ranging through the 60s with
locally some mid/upper 50s in the Adirondacks.

For Sunday, a weak ridge aloft and surface high pressure will keep
the region dry. A very isolated shower can`t be ruled out, but the
chance of that is 10% or less and not worth worrying about. 925mb
temps will once again be on the rise to neat +23C so widespread
highs in the mid to upper 80s is likely with some lower 90s
possible, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley.
Dewpoints will be slightly lower than today in the upper 50s to mid
60s so heat indices won`t be in the dangerous category. Of additional
note will be the chance for some Canadian wildfire smoke to be aloft
towards evening based on the latest HRRR forecast. No pollutants are
expected at the ground, but may make for an interesting sunset.

Finally for Sunday night, another weak to moderate shortwave is
progged to move into the eastern Great Lakes increasing the chance
for showers across northern New York after midnight. Elsewhere the
night should be dry with increasing clouds leading to lows warmer
than the previous night in the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...The Champlain and Connecticut River
Valleys could very well be in the middle of a heatwave by Monday.
Models have been very consistent placing a strong high pressure over
New England, with 850 temperatures reaching up to 25c on Monday.
Humidity levels will exasperate the problem, leading to a concerning
situation in terms of heat risk. We are also tracking the chance of
showers or thunderstorms. The thermodynamic profile is favorable for
development, but we will lack the shear required to truly allow for
severe storm development.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Our heat will peak on Tuesday, with
temperatures climbing an addition degree or two with dewpoints at or
above 70 in many locations, this combination would push heat index
values above 95F and reach advisory criteria. Tuesday is also more
favorable for thunderstorms than the previous days as our shear
profile increases.

By Wednesday afternoon, we will get our long awaited cold front,
knocking 10F off our temperatures. A line of showers will sweep by
along with the front, with pwats up near 1.75" these storms will be
efficient rain makers and we are under a marginal ERO for the day.
The good news is the storms will move by quickly, and we`ll be a
week removed from the recent flooding giving the soils and rivers
some time to recover. Following the cold front, our temperatures
will inch back up but we should have a very pleasant weekend in
store.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through
midnight outside of scattered convection which if over a
terminal would briefly drop cigs/vsby to MVFR/IFR. This is not
explicitly forecast in the TAF and will handle with amendments
as necessary. After 00Z, skies trend to SKC and fog is likely to
develop at KSLK, KMPV, and KEFK around midnight, lasting
through 10-12Z before lifting to VFR for the remainder of
Sunday. Winds will be variable at 4-6kts this afternoon and
Sunday, calm overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Likely TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Lahiff