Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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934 FXUS64 KBRO 161844 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The mid-level ridge remains anchored over West Texas through Saturday night, maintaining seasonal mid-August weather with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. The best chance for rain will be with the sea breeze this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. POPs remain generally below 15 percent and any coverage will be isolated. Any convection that does develop will likely be short-lived as the sea breeze outruns it. Streamer showers are possible offshore and along the coast into each morning, with muggy low temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heat Indices have been approaching 110 degrees this afternoon and will likely approach 110 degrees again Saturday afternoon. Heat Advisories may be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Mid/upper level ridging will continue to maintain seasonably hot temperatures, triple digit heat indices, and generally rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas through the long term period. Persistent low level easterly to southeasterly flow will maintain elevated dew points, resulting in humid days and nights. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s and low 90s along the Lower Texas coast, to around 104-105 degrees across the Northern Ranchlands. In combination with the humidity, heat indices will range from 105 to 114 degrees each afternoon. For those spending a prolonged period of time outdoors, be sure to take adequate breaks in the shade, wear loose-fitting light-colored clothing, and stay hydrate to prevent any heat-related illnesses. Rain/storm chances will be limited due to strong subsidence associated with the mid/upper level ridge, but isolated showers and thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze cannot be ruled out each afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, but any development could result in brief, heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with a southeasterly breeze this afternoon diminishing tonight. Isolated convection may develop along a weak sea breeze this afternoon around the RGV or just north. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Now through Saturday Night...High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico maintains generally light southeasterly flow through Saturday night, with seas of around 2 feet or less. The chance of streamer showers and thunderstorms continues offshore, especially during late night and early morning hours. Sunday through Friday...Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with light to moderate southeast winds and low seas. Isolated streamer showers and/or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Sunday, which could result in locally enhanced winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 96 80 95 / 0 10 0 20 HARLINGEN 77 97 76 96 / 0 10 0 20 MCALLEN 80 102 79 100 / 0 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 78 100 / 0 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 83 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 93 / 0 10 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....22-Garcia AVIATION...56-Hallman