934
FXUS64 KBRO 161844
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
144 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The mid-level ridge remains anchored over West Texas through
Saturday night, maintaining seasonal mid-August weather with highs
in the upper 90s to low 100s. The best chance for rain will be with
the sea breeze this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. POPs
remain generally below 15 percent and any coverage will be isolated.
Any convection that does develop will likely be short-lived as the
sea breeze outruns it. Streamer showers are possible offshore and
along the coast into each morning, with muggy low temps in the upper
70s to low 80s.

Heat Indices have been approaching 110 degrees this afternoon and
will likely approach 110 degrees again Saturday afternoon. Heat
Advisories may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Mid/upper level ridging will continue to maintain seasonably hot
temperatures, triple digit heat indices, and generally rain-free
conditions across Deep South Texas through the long term period.
Persistent low level easterly to southeasterly flow will maintain
elevated dew points, resulting in humid days and nights. High
temperatures will range from the upper 80s and low 90s along the
Lower Texas coast, to around 104-105 degrees across the Northern
Ranchlands. In combination with the humidity, heat indices will
range from 105 to 114 degrees each afternoon. For those spending a
prolonged period of time outdoors, be sure to take adequate breaks
in the shade, wear loose-fitting light-colored clothing, and stay
hydrate to prevent any heat-related illnesses.

Rain/storm chances will be limited due to strong subsidence
associated with the mid/upper level ridge, but isolated showers and
thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze cannot be ruled out
each afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, but any development
could result in brief, heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
a southeasterly breeze this afternoon diminishing tonight.
Isolated convection may develop along a weak sea breeze this
afternoon around the RGV or just north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Now through Saturday Night...High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico
maintains generally light southeasterly flow through Saturday night,
with seas of around 2 feet or less. The chance of streamer showers
and thunderstorms continues offshore, especially during late night
and early morning hours.

Sunday through Friday...Generally favorable marine conditions will
prevail with light to moderate southeast winds and low seas.
Isolated streamer showers and/or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
on Sunday, which could result in locally enhanced winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  96  80  95 /   0  10   0  20
HARLINGEN               77  97  76  96 /   0  10   0  20
MCALLEN                 80 102  79 100 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         78 101  78 100 /   0  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  90  83  90 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  93  78  93 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...56-Hallman