276
FXUS64 KBRO 100807
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
307 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

As mentioned previously, the mid-to-upper level ridge over northern
and central Texas will continue to remain in place throughout the
short term. Onshore flow will continue to elevate dewpoints and heat
indices as well.

The short term begins this morning in a slightly different fashion.
After sunrise in the western Gulf of Mexico, a south-southwestward
advancing cold front is expected to brush the coastline, weakening
as it moves further south. This will provide a lifting mechanism of
moisture, resulting in isolated convection for the barrier islands
and coastal portions of Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron Counties as well
as shift winds at the coast to northeasterly and easterly further
inland. However, the probability of precipitation (POPs) will
generally be less than 10%, 15% at best, closer to the coast. As the
seabreeze boundary develops later in the morning, Cameron County has
a 15%-20% chance of redevelopment of rain or thundershowers, and the
slight chance of convection, POPs still less than 10%, spreads
inland, thus transitioning winds to easterly, or east-northeasterly,
throughout much of Deep South Texas. Following, in the later
afternoon and evening hours, winds will return out of the southeast
for all of Deep South Texas for the rest of the short term. Tomorrow
will feature a less chance of showers, limited to the afternoon
hours.

Although there is a small chance of rain today, this does not mean
that it is going to be any, if at all, cooler for most. Hot
temperatures, humid conditions and high heat indices, or `real feel`
temperatures, are still in the forecast. Once again, a Special
Weather Statement goes into effect today for Brooks, Cameron,
Kennedy, Northern and Southern Hidalgo as well as Willacy Counties.
Heat indices are expected to reach, or surpass, 111 degrees F for 1
to 2 hours later in the afternoon for these areas. The same story
for heat is possible again tomorrow. Actual air temperatures should
reach upper 80s to lower 90s across the barrier islands, mid to
upper 90s closer to the western banks of the Laguna Madre and upper
90s to lower 100s elsewhere further inland to the west both today
and tomorrow. Overnight conditions will be warm and muggy with mid
to upper 70s inland and lower 80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The persistent mid-level ridge across Texas spins out over the
northern Gulf into mid to late next week, allowing some added
moisture and a few spokes of energy to swing into Deep South Texas
under the ridge. Expect summer-like early morning streamer
showers along the coast and isolated sea breeze convection working
into mainly coastal counties. The best chance of rain through the
week will be where any shortwaves or perturbations under the
ridge can coincide with sea breeze convection. At the moment, the
highest POPs come Monday afternoon along the coastal counties,
with both the GFS and ECMFW slinging a small disturbance between
the Coastal Bend and SPI Monday night into Tuesday that could
enhance lift and instability if timed out right with any lingering
sea breeze convection or outflow boundaries.

Temperatures remain seasonal with triple digit heat across the mid
to upper valley and ranchlands and muggy mornings into the upper
70s and low 80s. As moisture increases, expect Heat Indices to
once again reach near Heat Advisory criteria each afternoon.
Patchy fog will also be possible each morning where winds
diminish.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Currently, all TAF sites are reporting a light southeasterly
breeze with a few high clouds. Winds will remain light, variable
at times, throughout the night hours with mostly clear skies.
Throughout the morning and into the early afternoon, winds are
expected to pick up to a gentle-to-moderate breeze out of the
east-northeast as surface pressures over the Gulf and Central
Plains shift eastward. Meanwhile, a few-to-scattered cumulus
clouds may develop, but remain VFR, before giving way to a few
high clouds with light and variable winds later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Now through Sunday...Slight to moderate seas are expected through
tomorrow. A weakening cold front moving south-southwestward in the
morning hours will result in a light to gentle northerly breeze this
morning with isolated showers and, or thunderstorms. Winds will
transition to a gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze by the
afternoon and a light to gentle easterly breeze later in the evening
and overnight hours. A light southeasterly breeze will resume by
tomorrow morning becoming a gentle to moderate easterly breeze by
the afternoon.

Sunday Night through Friday...High pressure across the western
Gulf of Mexico maintains favorable marine conditions with
generally light SSE onshore flow. The chance of streamer showers
or thunderstorms continues, mainly during late night or early
morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             96  80  95  80 /  20   0  10  10
HARLINGEN               96  76  96  77 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                101  80 101  80 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        100  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      90  82  90  83 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  79  93  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...65-Irish