443
FXUS64 KBRO 101730 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

As mentioned previously, the mid-to-upper level ridge over northern
and central Texas will continue to remain in place throughout the
short term. Onshore flow will continue to elevate dewpoints and heat
indices as well.

The short term begins this morning in a slightly different fashion.
After sunrise in the western Gulf of Mexico, a weak south-
southwestward advancing frontal boundary is expected to brush the
coastline, as it moves further south. This will provide a lifting
mechanism of moisture, resulting in potential isolated convection
for the barrier islands and coastal portions of Kenedy, Willacy
and Cameron Counties as well as shift winds at the coast to
northeasterly and easterly further inland. However, the
probability of precipitation (POPs) will generally be less than
10%, 15% at best, closer to the coast. As the seabreeze boundary
develops later in the morning, Cameron County has a 15%-20% chance
of redevelopment of rain or thundershowers, and the slight chance
of convection, POPs still less than 10%, spreads inland, thus
transitioning winds to easterly, or east-northeasterly, throughout
much of Deep South Texas. Following, in the later afternoon and
evening hours, winds will return out of the southeast for all of
Deep South Texas for the rest of the short term. Tomorrow will
feature a less chance of showers, limited to the afternoon hours.

Although there is a small chance of rain today, this does not mean
that it is going to be any, if at all, cooler for most. Hot
temperatures, humid conditions and high heat indices, or `real feel`
temperatures, are still in the forecast. Once again, a Special
Weather Statement goes into effect today for Brooks, Cameron,
Kennedy, Northern and Southern Hidalgo as well as Willacy Counties.
Heat indices are expected to reach, or surpass, 111 degrees F for 1
to 2 hours later in the afternoon for these areas. The same story
for heat is possible again tomorrow. Actual air temperatures should
reach upper 80s to lower 90s across the barrier islands, mid to
upper 90s closer to the western banks of the Laguna Madre and upper
90s to lower 100s elsewhere further inland to the west both today
and tomorrow. Overnight conditions will be warm and muggy with mid
to upper 70s inland and lower 80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The persistent mid-level ridge across Texas spins out over the
northern Gulf into mid to late next week, allowing some added
moisture and a few spokes of energy to swing into Deep South Texas
under the ridge. Expect summer-like early morning streamer
showers along the coast and isolated sea breeze convection working
into mainly coastal counties. The best chance of rain through the
week will be where any shortwaves or perturbations under the
ridge can coincide with sea breeze convection. At the moment, the
highest POPs come Monday afternoon along the coastal counties,
with both the GFS and ECMFW slinging a small disturbance between
the Coastal Bend and SPI Monday night into Tuesday that could
enhance lift and instability if timed out right with any lingering
sea breeze convection or outflow boundaries.

Temperatures remain seasonal with triple digit heat across the mid
to upper valley and ranchlands and muggy mornings into the upper
70s and low 80s. As moisture increases, expect Heat Indices to
once again reach near Heat Advisory criteria each afternoon.
Patchy fog will also be possible each morning where winds
diminish.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Winds are expected to remain light to moderate out of the
southeast this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.
Winds are expected to shift back to the southeast again after
sunrise Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Now through Sunday...Slight to low seas are expected through
tomorrow. A weak frontal boundary moving south-southwestward in
the morning hours will result in a light to gentle northerly
breeze this morning with possible isolated showers and, or
thunderstorms. Winds will transition to a gentle northeasterly
breeze by the afternoon and a light to gentle easterly breeze
later in the evening and overnight hours. A light southeasterly
breeze will resume by tomorrow morning becoming a gentle easterly
breeze by the afternoon.

Sunday Night through Friday...High pressure across the western
Gulf of Mexico maintains favorable marine conditions with
generally light SSE onshore flow. The chance of streamer showers
or thunderstorms continues, mainly during late night or early
morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             96  80  95  80 /  20   0  10  10
HARLINGEN               96  76  96  76 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                101  80 101  80 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        100  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      90  82  90  83 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  79  93  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...60-BE