726
FXUS64 KBRO 232327
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
627 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

- Daily low to medium (20-40%) precipitation chances continue
  through most of the week, mainly along and east of US-281.

- Minor heat risk through the end of the week.

- There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The latest radar and satellite imagery reveals rain-free
conditions across Deep South Texas as of the time of this
writing, although there has been an uptick in diurnally-driven
cumulus clouds as daytime heating occurs. Similar to previous
days, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should
develop later this afternoon as daytime heating is maximized, with
any activity that develops being capable of wind gusts to 40 MPH,
locally heavy rainfall, and lightning. Otherwise, rain-free
conditions return tonight with the loss of daytime heating, with
lows falling into the low to mid 70s. Some patchy fog may develop
late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Expect a similar pattern
on Tuesday, with low to medium (20-40%) precipitation chances
beginning late Tuesday morning into the late afternoon hours. High
temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon will be near
normal for mid to late June with heat index values ranging from
100-105 degrees.

Along the Lower Texas beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents
continues through tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

There will be continued daily low to medium (20-40%) precipitation
chances across Deep South Texas as the region remains along the
far southwestern periphery of mid-level ridging centered over the
eastern US. Persistent low level easterly to southeasterly flow
will continue to advect Gulf moisture toward the region, and will
interact each day with diurnal heating, as well as weak embedded
impulses translating beneath the ridge. It is difficult to
pinpoint the exact locations that will receive any showers or
thunderstorms each day and will be dependent on where the highest
moisture content will reside, but most activity will be short-
lived with primary impacts being gusty winds to 40 MPH, locally
heavy rain, and lightning. Otherwise, expect near normal
temperatures to continue through the weekend with heat index
values ranging from 100-108 degrees each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Key Aviation IDSS Message:

* Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday, which could
  briefly reduce cigs/vsbys to MVFR-IFR levels and change wind
  speeds/direction.

Through 00z Wednesday....VFR conditions are by and large expected to
prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. VCSH trends will decrease through
this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. Any showers or
storms that develop or move over the terminals will have the
capabilities of briefly reducing cigs/vsbys to MVFR-IFR levels.

Breezy southeast winds 10-20 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts this
evening are expected to decrease to speeds between 5-10 kts by
tonight. Southeast winds 5-10 kts are expected to continue through
the day on Tuesday.

Any showers or thunderstorms that develop or track over the
terminals on Tuesday will have the capabilities of creating
variable winds with gusts between 35-40 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with low to
moderate seas and light to moderate winds. A locally enhanced
pressure gradient may result in brief Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters each
afternoon. Otherwise, daily isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the week over the Gulf waters
and Laguna Madre.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  92  76  92 /   0  40  10  30
HARLINGEN               74  92  73  92 /   0  30  10  30
MCALLEN                 77  95  75  95 /   0  30   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  93  74  93 /   0  20   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  79  87 /   0  30  10  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  90  76  90 /   0  30  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma