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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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443 FXUS64 KBRO 101730 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 As mentioned previously, the mid-to-upper level ridge over northern and central Texas will continue to remain in place throughout the short term. Onshore flow will continue to elevate dewpoints and heat indices as well. The short term begins this morning in a slightly different fashion. After sunrise in the western Gulf of Mexico, a weak south- southwestward advancing frontal boundary is expected to brush the coastline, as it moves further south. This will provide a lifting mechanism of moisture, resulting in potential isolated convection for the barrier islands and coastal portions of Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron Counties as well as shift winds at the coast to northeasterly and easterly further inland. However, the probability of precipitation (POPs) will generally be less than 10%, 15% at best, closer to the coast. As the seabreeze boundary develops later in the morning, Cameron County has a 15%-20% chance of redevelopment of rain or thundershowers, and the slight chance of convection, POPs still less than 10%, spreads inland, thus transitioning winds to easterly, or east-northeasterly, throughout much of Deep South Texas. Following, in the later afternoon and evening hours, winds will return out of the southeast for all of Deep South Texas for the rest of the short term. Tomorrow will feature a less chance of showers, limited to the afternoon hours. Although there is a small chance of rain today, this does not mean that it is going to be any, if at all, cooler for most. Hot temperatures, humid conditions and high heat indices, or `real feel` temperatures, are still in the forecast. Once again, a Special Weather Statement goes into effect today for Brooks, Cameron, Kennedy, Northern and Southern Hidalgo as well as Willacy Counties. Heat indices are expected to reach, or surpass, 111 degrees F for 1 to 2 hours later in the afternoon for these areas. The same story for heat is possible again tomorrow. Actual air temperatures should reach upper 80s to lower 90s across the barrier islands, mid to upper 90s closer to the western banks of the Laguna Madre and upper 90s to lower 100s elsewhere further inland to the west both today and tomorrow. Overnight conditions will be warm and muggy with mid to upper 70s inland and lower 80s along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The persistent mid-level ridge across Texas spins out over the northern Gulf into mid to late next week, allowing some added moisture and a few spokes of energy to swing into Deep South Texas under the ridge. Expect summer-like early morning streamer showers along the coast and isolated sea breeze convection working into mainly coastal counties. The best chance of rain through the week will be where any shortwaves or perturbations under the ridge can coincide with sea breeze convection. At the moment, the highest POPs come Monday afternoon along the coastal counties, with both the GFS and ECMFW slinging a small disturbance between the Coastal Bend and SPI Monday night into Tuesday that could enhance lift and instability if timed out right with any lingering sea breeze convection or outflow boundaries. Temperatures remain seasonal with triple digit heat across the mid to upper valley and ranchlands and muggy mornings into the upper 70s and low 80s. As moisture increases, expect Heat Indices to once again reach near Heat Advisory criteria each afternoon. Patchy fog will also be possible each morning where winds diminish. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Winds are expected to remain light to moderate out of the southeast this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds are expected to shift back to the southeast again after sunrise Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Now through Sunday...Slight to low seas are expected through tomorrow. A weak frontal boundary moving south-southwestward in the morning hours will result in a light to gentle northerly breeze this morning with possible isolated showers and, or thunderstorms. Winds will transition to a gentle northeasterly breeze by the afternoon and a light to gentle easterly breeze later in the evening and overnight hours. A light southeasterly breeze will resume by tomorrow morning becoming a gentle easterly breeze by the afternoon. Sunday Night through Friday...High pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico maintains favorable marine conditions with generally light SSE onshore flow. The chance of streamer showers or thunderstorms continues, mainly during late night or early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 80 95 80 / 20 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 96 76 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 MCALLEN 101 80 101 80 / 10 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 90 83 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 79 93 78 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...60-BE