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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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353 FXUS64 KBRO 120538 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 The mid-level ridge swings out into the northern Gulf of Mexico as surface high pressure anchors into the central Gulf, maintaining somewhat typical August conditions across Deep South Texas into Monday night. Tropical moisture increases from the south into Monday, leading to a better chance of convective development along the sea breeze, especially on Monday, as well as more streamer activity along the coast Monday morning. Near normal highs and lows combined with the increasing moisture elevate Heat Indices each afternoon to borderline Heat Advisory criteria and keep mornings muggy with patchy fog near open fields, especially north of the valley. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 The long term forecast remains on track. Mid level ridging will continue over Texas through the period. A weak midlevel trough will continue to move west across the southern periphery of the ridge into Tuesday. Tropical moisture associated with this trough will lead to chances for rain and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon with most of this activity remaining confined to areas east of I-69C. Conditions will dry out for the remainder of the period, though a few sea breeze showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled out each afternoon. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. With more humidity across the region through the week, heat indices in excess of 105 are expected each afternoon. Heat Advisories may be possible throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Doppler radar at 1230 AM CDT is showing isolated showers over the Lower Texas coastal waters with a few moving inland east of KBRO and KHRL. The showers are moving west-northwest around 20 knots. Conditions are improving for additional showers and afternoon thunderstorms with low to modest areal coverage. Best chance for KBRO/KHRL to see showers or thunderstorms, besides a brief passing shower before sunrise, looks to be 16-20Z, with KMFE see the most activity in the vicinity of 19-22Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with light southeast winds. MVFR ceilings and visibility and potential for gusty winds will accompany any passing convection cluster. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Now through Monday Night...High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico maintains generally light southeasterly flow through Monday night, gradually building seas to 2-3 feet. The chance of showers and thunderstorms continues offshore, especially during late night and early morning hours. Tuesday through Saturday...Generally favorable conditions will continue on the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through the period. Southeasterly winds will remain light with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Streamer showers and/or isolated thunderstorms will be possible throughout the period that could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 97 80 96 / 10 20 10 10 HARLINGEN 77 96 77 97 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 80 101 80 101 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 101 79 102 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 84 90 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 79 94 / 0 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....68-McGinnis AVIATION...59-GB