353
FXUS64 KBRO 120538 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

The mid-level ridge swings out into the northern Gulf of Mexico as
surface high pressure anchors into the central Gulf, maintaining
somewhat typical August conditions across Deep South Texas into
Monday night. Tropical moisture increases from the south into
Monday, leading to a better chance of convective development along
the sea breeze, especially on Monday, as well as more streamer
activity along the coast Monday morning. Near normal highs and lows
combined with the increasing moisture elevate Heat Indices each
afternoon to borderline Heat Advisory criteria and keep mornings
muggy with patchy fog near open fields, especially north of the
valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

The long term forecast remains on track. Mid level ridging will
continue over Texas through the period. A weak midlevel trough
will continue to move west across the southern periphery of the
ridge into Tuesday. Tropical moisture associated with this trough
will lead to chances for rain and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
with most of this activity remaining confined to areas east of
I-69C. Conditions will dry out for the remainder of the period,
though a few sea breeze showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled
out each afternoon.

Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the upper 90s to low
100s. With more humidity across the region through the week, heat
indices in excess of 105 are expected each afternoon. Heat
Advisories may be possible throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Doppler radar at 1230 AM CDT is showing isolated showers over the
Lower Texas coastal waters with a few moving inland east of KBRO
and KHRL. The showers are moving west-northwest around 20 knots.
Conditions are improving for additional showers and afternoon
thunderstorms with low to modest areal coverage. Best chance for
KBRO/KHRL to see showers or thunderstorms, besides a brief
passing shower before sunrise, looks to be 16-20Z, with KMFE
see the most activity in the vicinity of 19-22Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail with light southeast winds. MVFR ceilings and
visibility and potential for gusty winds will accompany any
passing convection cluster.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Now through Monday Night...High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico
maintains generally light southeasterly flow through Monday night,
gradually building seas to 2-3 feet. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms continues offshore, especially during late night and
early morning hours.

Tuesday through Saturday...Generally favorable conditions will
continue on the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through the period.
Southeasterly winds will remain light with seas of 2 to 3 feet.
Streamer showers and/or isolated thunderstorms will be possible
throughout the period that could lead to locally enhanced winds
and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  97  80  96 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN               77  96  77  97 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 80 101  80 101 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         79 101  79 102 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  90  84  90 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  93  79  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...59-GB