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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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652 FXUS64 KBRO 091638 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1138 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 A summer time pattern is set to be in place over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. A weakness in the 500mb height pattern couple with the continued easterly to southeasterly flow will result in a favorable environment that could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. With PWATs still over 2 inches and the steering flow of the atmosphere being weak, storms that do develop could bring heavy rain and possibly train over an area leading to some localized flooding. With CAPE values are over 2000 J/kg there will certainly be some energy in the atmosphere for storms to tap into. As for the temperatures, the highs are expected to be in the range of mid 90s to triple digits. Thanks to all the moisture the heat indices could even get up to 114. However, if any significant cloud coverage develops that could actually reduce the expected high temperatures and the heat indices. Another factor to have consider is that the elevated heat indices do not persist for a long time. As such a Special Weather Statement will be issued for the elevated heat indices. There is still a possibility that a Heat Advisory would be needed if heat indices do rise early in the afternoon. As for the low temperatures, they are expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 A broad 500mb trough/weakness persist across Texas through the end of the workweek in-between anomalous ridging over the western CONUS and the Bermuda Ridge extending over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Farther south an inverted trough (remnants of 96L) moves across eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Sufficient moisture already in place increases Thursday and Friday with passage of the inverted trough will combine with the sea breeze and differential heating maintaining a good chance of daily diurnal showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The tropical nature of the Mid July moisture (Pwats 2-2.25 inches) will be the catalyst for pockets of heavy efficient rainfall. Any slow moving thunderstorm could produce a quick one to two inches of rain. Next weekend into early next week the latest deterministic models show the mid-level weakness filling in as it drifts west and the western ridge expands eastward overspreading the southern half of the CONUS. This should allow for pops to reduce to slight chances. Temperature trends start off near to slightly below normal Thursday and Friday with the higher rain chances, so expect highs in the mid 90s and minimums in the mid to upper 70s. Rising temperatures to the mid 90s to lower 100s (upper 70s to lower 80s for minimums) for the weekend and early next week can be expected as rain chances trend lower. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR conditions now at the TAF sites. A weak sea breeze is underway with scattered to broken CU streets over the lower RGV and eastern half of Hidalgo County. Winds are light southeast. Could see convection develop in the vicinity of the TAF sites this afternoon. Deeper towers are evident on satellite near KBRO. Should convection develop, cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours would be the main threats. Guidance suggest a shift to more easterly winds tonight and Wednesday with increasing cloud cover and rain chances. MVFR ceilings will be more likely on Wednesday with morning CU development and light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Today through Wednesday...Light to moderate onshore flow with low to moderate seas will result in favorable conditions through Wednesday. (Wednesday night through Monday)...Weak surface ridge anchored over much of the Gulf waters the remainder of the week and into the weekend provides favorable marine conditions. Light to occasionally moderate southeast winds and low seas are expected. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall and gusty wind, are expected anytime with the majority overnight and early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 93 79 91 / 10 60 30 60 HARLINGEN 76 94 75 91 / 10 60 20 60 MCALLEN 79 95 78 93 / 10 50 20 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 95 77 93 / 20 40 20 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 87 80 87 / 20 60 40 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 91 77 90 / 10 60 30 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...54-BHM