726
FXUS64 KBRO 052315
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
615 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Slow southern transit of the low pressure associated with the
convective complex in central TX will maintain low (<20%) of showers
to the Rio Grande plains and along the mid-upper RGV this weekend.
These isolated to scattered showers continue to work their way
south and provide a low chance of rain across the northern
Ranchlands through this afternoon, lessening overnight, before
bringing yet another chance Sunday. The 12Z sounding this morning
shows a dry nose in mid-levels (~40% RH) and PWAT of 1.60" - a
typical value for this time of year. GOES-19 Satellite derived
PWATs indicate moister air behind the boundary passing through
the CWA, with PWATs around 2" (~90th percentile of climatology).
Winds gusting around 25 mph at the surface this afternoon in the
RGV and coast will diminish with the loss of surface heating
tonight. Sunday afternoon, gusts up to 25 mph are possible as the
low pressure continues its southward trek.

Below average high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s won`t
keep apparent temperatures at bay - "Feels like" in the upper 90s
to mid 100s for the remainder of the weekend. Continue to practice
heat safety. Low temperatures near normal in the mid to upper 70s.

Elevated winds and seas maintain a Moderate Risk of rip currents
at local beaches into tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Broad ridging over the Gulf takes over by early next week, allowing
for a chance of showers along the sea breeze boundary Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. High pressure slides east closer to the TX coast
through the week, increasing subsidence and limiting chance of rain
for the mid to end of week. Increased sunshine will allow for high
temperatures to rise (from low 90s to mid-upper 90s), with Minor to
Moderate (Levels 1 and 2 of 4) risk of heat-related impacts expected
each day into the weekend. Apparent temperatures in the triple
digits will continue to rise up to 100-110 by late week. Lows remain
consistently average in the mid-upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Pressure gradient this evening continues to result in enhanced
southeasterly winds of around 15-25 knots with gusts to 25-30
knots through sunset, before gradually diminishing overnight to
10-15 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots. MVFR ceilings at KBRO are
likely to persist throughout the overnight hours, while VFR
conditions prevail at KHRL and KMFE, though TEMPO`s have been
included to account for the medium (30-50%) chance of MVFR
ceilings developing, possibly by 10Z. Conditions slowly improve to
VFR at all TAF sites throughout Sunday morning with southeasterly
winds picking back up to similar speeds today, though possibly a
few knots lighter.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Tonight through next Saturday...Elevated winds and seas associated
with a low pressure over central TX keep afternoon conditions
borderline SCEC through Sunday. There is a low chance (<20%) for
isolated to scattered showers every morning/afternoon through
midweek before conditions dry out under surface high pressure.
Gusty winds today expected to decrease to moderate out of the
south-southeast, becoming gentle by midweek. Wave heights
primarily 2-3 ft are expected following high pressure early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  91  77  91 /   0  10   0  20
HARLINGEN               76  92  75  92 /   0  10   0  20
MCALLEN                 78  93  78  94 /   0  10   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  91  75  94 /  10  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  86  79  86 /   0  10   0  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  89  77  90 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...65-Irish