422
FXUS64 KBRO 121845
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
145 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The forecast remains on track. While midlevel ridging remains the
dominant feature over the southern US, a weak inverted trough will
rotate across the the southern periphery and allow tropical moisture
to stream into the area. This mornings BRO sounding recorded a PWAT
of 1.95 inches which lines up with forecasted PWATs of around 2 in
inches in the area. This will allow for the potential for showers
and maybe a few thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly east of I-69C.
Tuesday we will continue to see elevated tropical moisture in the
area, though troughing will be a bit weaker. POPs remain around 15%
Tuesday, with any convection most likely in the afternoon along the
sea breeze.

Warm temperatures will continue across the CWA, with a Heat Advisory
in effect for Brooks, Kenedy, Willacy, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties
until 5 PM this evening. This does not include the islands. Warm and
muggy conditions continue overnight with lows in the upper 70s to
around 80. Tomorrows highs and lows will be similar to with Heat
Advisories possible once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

High pressure persists into next week, maintaining fairly typical
mid-August weather for Deep South Texas. An elongated 500mb ridge
from the Desert SW to the northern Gulf strengthens west of Texas
into the weekend as a large trough of low pressure deepens across
the eastern CONUS. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible
along the sea breeze each afternoon, with POPs generally below 10
percent. Streamer showers are possible, mainly offshore, each
night and early morning. Temperatures remain seasonal with triple
digit heat for most of Deep South Texas, upper 90s in the lower
valley, and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Muggy mornings
in the upper 70s to low 80s continue, with patchy fog possible in
open fields in calmer winds. Heat Advisories may be needed each
afternoon with Heat Indices near or topping 111 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. This
afternoon we could see some showers or maybe a few thunderstorms
develop this afternoon. Some of this activity could produce brief
heavy rains that could briefly lower visibility and gusty winds.
Best timeframe for this activity will be between 18 and 22z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Now through Tuesday Night...Generally favorable conditions will
continue on the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through the period.
Southeasterly winds will remain light with seas of 1 to 2 feet.
Streamer showers and/or isolated thunderstorms will be possible
throughout the period that could lead to locally enhanced winds and
seas.

Wednesday through Monday...High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico
maintains favorable marine conditions with light to only briefly
moderate SSE onshore flow. Isolated streamer showers or
thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late night or early
morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  96  80  96 /  10  20   0  10
HARLINGEN               78  96  77  97 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 81 101  79 101 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         79 101  78 101 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  91  83  90 /   0  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  93  78  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ250-251-
     253>255-351-353>355.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...68-McGinnis