885
FXUS64 KBRO 130539 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The forecast remains on track. While midlevel ridging remains the
dominant feature over the southern US, a weak inverted trough will
rotate across the the southern periphery and allow tropical moisture
to stream into the area. This mornings BRO sounding recorded a PWAT
of 1.95 inches which lines up with forecasted PWATs of around 2 in
inches in the area. This will allow for the potential for showers
and maybe a few thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly east of I-69C.
Tuesday we will continue to see elevated tropical moisture in the
area, though troughing will be a bit weaker. POPs remain around 15%
Tuesday, with any convection most likely in the afternoon along the
sea breeze.

Warm temperatures will continue across the CWA, with a Heat Advisory
in effect for Brooks, Kenedy, Willacy, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties
until 5 PM this evening. This does not include the islands. Warm and
muggy conditions continue overnight with lows in the upper 70s to
around 80. Tomorrows highs and lows will be similar to with Heat
Advisories possible once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

High pressure persists into next week, maintaining fairly typical
mid-August weather for Deep South Texas. An elongated 500mb ridge
from the Desert SW to the northern Gulf strengthens west of Texas
into the weekend as a large trough of low pressure deepens across
the eastern CONUS. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible
along the sea breeze each afternoon, with POPs generally below 10
percent. Streamer showers are possible, mainly offshore, each
night and early morning. Temperatures remain seasonal with triple
digit heat for most of Deep South Texas, upper 90s in the lower
valley, and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Muggy mornings
in the upper 70s to low 80s continue, with patchy fog possible in
open fields in calmer winds. Heat Advisories may be needed each
afternoon with Heat Indices near or topping 111 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. Mostly light southeasterly winds are expected, but
there will be periods of more gusty winds up to 20 knots for the
region. With the southeasterly flow in place, low-level clouds are
expected to develop, but should not be enough to cause a change in
the flight categories though.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Now through Tuesday Night...Generally favorable conditions will
continue on the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through the period.
Southeasterly winds will remain light with seas of 1 to 2 feet.
Streamer showers and/or isolated thunderstorms will be possible
throughout the period that could lead to locally enhanced winds and
seas.

Wednesday through Monday...High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico
maintains favorable marine conditions with light to only briefly
moderate SSE onshore flow. Isolated streamer showers or
thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late night or early
morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             96  80  96  80 /  20   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               96  77  97  77 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                101  79 101  80 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        101  78 101  78 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      91  83  90  84 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  78  94  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...64-Katz