343
FXUS64 KBRO 132326 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
626 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The forecast remains on track. Midlevel ridging over the region
remains the dominant weather driver for the short term period. PWATs
in the area remain high with this mornings BRO sounding recording
2.02 inches. This excess moisture will continue to allow for some
showers and thunderstorms today. Most of the activity will remain
offshore, though we could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm
along the sea breeze this afternoon. On Wednesday, while moisture
continues to wain, cannot rule out an isolated sea breeze shower or
thunderstorm.

Warm temperatures continue to be a mainstay across the CWA with
temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s through the short term. A
Special Weather Statement has been issued for Deep South Texas (away
from the islands) for heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees
today. A few locations may reach 111 degrees for a short period. A
Heat Advisory will need to be considered for tomorrow as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Broad upper level ridging across the southern US looks to be
firmly in place by the start of the period. Over the weekend, the
ridge is expected to build along the Rocky Mountains as a trough
digs across the eastern US. The ridge will then shift further east
near the end of the period, becoming centered over the Central
Plains. Subsidence aloft will likely result in fairly dry mid
levels, keeping rain chances near zero for inland areas. However,
the possibility of isolated shower or thunderstorm developing
along the sea breeze each afternoon cant be ruled out entirely.

At the surface, high pressure looks to remain in control across
the Gulf of Mexico through the period. Winds will likely remain
easterly to southeasterly, supporting continued moisture transport
through the period.

Heat will continue to be the primary concern through the period,
with high temperatures in the upper 90s near the coast and low
100s elsewhere. Heat indices look to range from 111-115 over the
eastern third of the CWA each afternoon, with Heat Advisories and
Special Weather Statements likely needed each afternoon. Low
temperatures look to range from the mid 70s to low 80s through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with
moderate to breezy winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
likely. Precipitation is not anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...Generally favorable conditions will
continue on the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through the period.
Southeasterly winds will remain light with seas of 1 to 3 feet.
Streamer showers and/or isolated thunderstorms will be possible
throughout the period that could lead to locally enhanced winds and
seas.

Thursday through next Tuesday...Favorable marine conditions are
expected to continue through the period. Surface high pressure
across the Gulf will continue to support light to moderate
easterly to southeasterly winds and slight seas through the
period. Streamer showers or isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible through the period, especially during the late night to
early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  96  80  96 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               77  96  77  97 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 80 101  80 101 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         78 100  78 101 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  90  83  90 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  94  79  94 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$