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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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343 FXUS64 KBRO 132326 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 626 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The forecast remains on track. Midlevel ridging over the region remains the dominant weather driver for the short term period. PWATs in the area remain high with this mornings BRO sounding recording 2.02 inches. This excess moisture will continue to allow for some showers and thunderstorms today. Most of the activity will remain offshore, though we could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze this afternoon. On Wednesday, while moisture continues to wain, cannot rule out an isolated sea breeze shower or thunderstorm. Warm temperatures continue to be a mainstay across the CWA with temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s through the short term. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for Deep South Texas (away from the islands) for heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees today. A few locations may reach 111 degrees for a short period. A Heat Advisory will need to be considered for tomorrow as well. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Broad upper level ridging across the southern US looks to be firmly in place by the start of the period. Over the weekend, the ridge is expected to build along the Rocky Mountains as a trough digs across the eastern US. The ridge will then shift further east near the end of the period, becoming centered over the Central Plains. Subsidence aloft will likely result in fairly dry mid levels, keeping rain chances near zero for inland areas. However, the possibility of isolated shower or thunderstorm developing along the sea breeze each afternoon cant be ruled out entirely. At the surface, high pressure looks to remain in control across the Gulf of Mexico through the period. Winds will likely remain easterly to southeasterly, supporting continued moisture transport through the period. Heat will continue to be the primary concern through the period, with high temperatures in the upper 90s near the coast and low 100s elsewhere. Heat indices look to range from 111-115 over the eastern third of the CWA each afternoon, with Heat Advisories and Special Weather Statements likely needed each afternoon. Low temperatures look to range from the mid 70s to low 80s through the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with moderate to breezy winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies likely. Precipitation is not anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night...Generally favorable conditions will continue on the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through the period. Southeasterly winds will remain light with seas of 1 to 3 feet. Streamer showers and/or isolated thunderstorms will be possible throughout the period that could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas. Thursday through next Tuesday...Favorable marine conditions are expected to continue through the period. Surface high pressure across the Gulf will continue to support light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and slight seas through the period. Streamer showers or isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the period, especially during the late night to early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 96 80 96 / 0 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 77 96 77 97 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 80 101 80 101 / 0 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 100 78 101 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 83 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 79 94 / 0 10 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$