046
FXUS64 KBRO 140754
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
254 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Elevated Heat Indices for Today and Tomorrow

- Mostly rain-free conditions

The mid-level ridge continues to be the dominate force for the
weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While
normally, this would mean there would be plenty of dry air aloft,
model trends and observations have shown otherwise. PWAT values are
around 2 inches for most of the period. Based on this information,
there is an isolated chance of showers and thunderstorms with the
seabreeze during the afternoon for today and tomorrow.

Since the surface flow for the short term forecast is expected to be
still out of the southeast, which will drawn in plenty of moisture
to the region and elevate the heat indices. While the heat indices
are expected to be around 110 for the next couple of days, thus
below the criteria for a Heat Advisory. A Special Weather Statement
will be out as conditions are so close.

As for the actual temperatures, highs are expected to be mostly in
the triple digits while the coastal regions are expected to be in
the upper 90s. Moving on to the low temperatures for tonight, those
are expected to be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

An elongated 500mb ridge centered over the Arizona Thursday evening
will build eastward over Texas by the weekend. At the surface, high
pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will continue to maintain steady
onshore flow through the period. Subsidence aloft will likely result
in fairly dry mid levels, keeping rain chances near zero for inland
areas. However, the possibility of isolated shower or thunderstorm
developing along the sea breeze each afternoon cant be ruled out
entirely. Also, a streamer showers will be possible across the Gulf
waters each night into the early morning. Otherwise, hot and humid
days and warm nights are expected through the period.

Heat will continue to be the primary concern through the long term.
Temperatures will remain near normal with triple digit heat across
much of Deep South Texas, except for upper 90s in the lower valley,
and upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast. Heat indices
are expected to range from 111-115 degrees over the eastern portions
of the CWA each afternoon, generally along and east of the I-69C/US
281 corridor. Heat Advisories and Special Weather Statements will
likely be needed each afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to fall
into the mid to upper 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. Southeasterly winds are should remain light for
most of the period but some gustier periods are possible during
the afternoon, with gusts around 20 knots expected. Low-level
clouds are possible with the given flow leading to some mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Today through Thursday...Favorable conditions with low to
moderate southeasterly winds and low seas are expected through
Thursday. A streamer shower or thunderstorm is possible that could
result in locally elevated winds and seas.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Favorable conditions are expected
to continue through the period. High pressure across the Gulf will
continue to support weak to moderate onshore flow and low seas
through the period. Streamer showers or isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible through the period, especially during the late night
to early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             96  80  96  81 /  20   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               97  77  97  77 /  20   0  10   0
MCALLEN                101  80 101  80 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        101  78 101  79 /  10   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      90  83  90  83 /  20   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     94  79  94  80 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...64-Katz