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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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046 FXUS64 KBRO 140754 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 254 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Key Messages: - Elevated Heat Indices for Today and Tomorrow - Mostly rain-free conditions The mid-level ridge continues to be the dominate force for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While normally, this would mean there would be plenty of dry air aloft, model trends and observations have shown otherwise. PWAT values are around 2 inches for most of the period. Based on this information, there is an isolated chance of showers and thunderstorms with the seabreeze during the afternoon for today and tomorrow. Since the surface flow for the short term forecast is expected to be still out of the southeast, which will drawn in plenty of moisture to the region and elevate the heat indices. While the heat indices are expected to be around 110 for the next couple of days, thus below the criteria for a Heat Advisory. A Special Weather Statement will be out as conditions are so close. As for the actual temperatures, highs are expected to be mostly in the triple digits while the coastal regions are expected to be in the upper 90s. Moving on to the low temperatures for tonight, those are expected to be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 An elongated 500mb ridge centered over the Arizona Thursday evening will build eastward over Texas by the weekend. At the surface, high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will continue to maintain steady onshore flow through the period. Subsidence aloft will likely result in fairly dry mid levels, keeping rain chances near zero for inland areas. However, the possibility of isolated shower or thunderstorm developing along the sea breeze each afternoon cant be ruled out entirely. Also, a streamer showers will be possible across the Gulf waters each night into the early morning. Otherwise, hot and humid days and warm nights are expected through the period. Heat will continue to be the primary concern through the long term. Temperatures will remain near normal with triple digit heat across much of Deep South Texas, except for upper 90s in the lower valley, and upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast. Heat indices are expected to range from 111-115 degrees over the eastern portions of the CWA each afternoon, generally along and east of the I-69C/US 281 corridor. Heat Advisories and Special Weather Statements will likely be needed each afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the mid to upper 70s and lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Southeasterly winds are should remain light for most of the period but some gustier periods are possible during the afternoon, with gusts around 20 knots expected. Low-level clouds are possible with the given flow leading to some mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Today through Thursday...Favorable conditions with low to moderate southeasterly winds and low seas are expected through Thursday. A streamer shower or thunderstorm is possible that could result in locally elevated winds and seas. Thursday night through Tuesday...Favorable conditions are expected to continue through the period. High pressure across the Gulf will continue to support weak to moderate onshore flow and low seas through the period. Streamer showers or isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the period, especially during the late night to early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 80 96 81 / 20 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 97 77 97 77 / 20 0 10 0 MCALLEN 101 80 101 80 / 10 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 78 101 79 / 10 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 83 90 83 / 20 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 79 94 80 / 20 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64-Katz LONG TERM....63-KC AVIATION...64-Katz