184
FXUS64 KBRO 080324
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1024 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

An inverted mid-level trough of low pressure currently over the
central Gulf of America will gradually retrograde into Mexico
during the period. This weakness, combined with precipitable water
values that will hover near two inches, will result in isolated to
scattered convection across the BRO CWFA. The likely scenario will
be streamer convection over the lower Texas coastal waters at
night, followed by showers and thunderstorms that will develop
inland during the heating of the day and gradually migrate from
east to west. Temperature-wise, the opportunity for rainfall and
the associated cloud cover will hold daytime highs at near normal
levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

With the above-mentioned 500 mb weakness inland over Mexico
(eventually transitioning over the Pacific Ocean), and mid-level
high pressure nosing into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley from the east, generally dry weather will prevail through
the period. However, one issue that may reintroduce convection
into this portion of the total forecast at a later time will be
precipitable water values, which never significantly fall too far
below two inches.

Regarding temperatures, near normal daytime highs will be
maintained, with the 500 mb high in proximity to the region but
not overly oppressive. Despite relatively ample atmospheric
moisture, these values will not support any threat of a Heat
Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through
the next 24 hours. Winds will diminish for the overnight hours
before becoming moderate on Tuesday. The next TAF issuance later
tonight may need to include a TEMPO for convection based on the
HRRR model.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

High pressure over the western Gulf of America will produce light
to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas
Coast through the period. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and
Small Craft Advisory are not anticipated to be needed.

(Thursday through next Tuesday)
High pressure over the western Gulf of America will interact with
thermal low pressure that will strengthen and persist over inland
Mexico. This will produce generally moderate winds and seas along
the Lower Texas Coast during the period. Although Small Craft
Advisory is not likely to be needed, Small Craft Should Exercise
cannot be entirely ruled out due to winds, especially for the
Laguna Madre.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  92  78  92 /  10  30  10  30
HARLINGEN               76  94  75  94 /  10  30  10  30
MCALLEN                 79  96  78  96 /   0  30   0  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  95  76  95 /   0  20   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  79  87 /  20  20  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  91  77  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT and LONG TERM...Tomaselli-66
GRAPHICS/RADAR/UPPER AIR...Hallman-56