961
FXUS64 KBRO 061743
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1243 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The vorticity max in central TX slowly dissipating, meandering
south and bringing a low (10%) chance of showers to the western
CWA this afternoon. However, showers associated with the sea
breeze are still in the cards Sunday afternoon with a 20% or less
chance. Low pressure over the eastern Gulf will slowly translate
west, weakening any subsidence provided by the overall ridging
pattern and will maintain these slightly elevated PoPs through
midweek (20-30%). There is also a chance of sea breeze shower
activity each afternoon through midweek.

Cloud cover will keep temperatures near normal through midweek,
with highs in the upper 80s along the coast to mid 90s inland.
Little change to low temperatures, mid 70s to around 80 nearer the
coast. There is a Low Risk of rip currents at local beaches early
this week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Midweek, the aforementioned troughing over the Gulf will begin to
fill and ridging will begin to dominate the pattern. Subsidence
aloft and clearing skies will keep rain chances below 10% and
allow for a warming trend. Temperatures return to normal in the
mid 90s to near 100 in the Rio Grande Plains, and overnight in the
mid to upper 70s. Thursday and into the weekend, apparent
temperatures each afternoon will climb into the upper 100s, with
highest values possible in Kenedy County along I-69E.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Primarily VFR at all sites through the period. Low chance (<20%)
of showers associated with the sea breeze this afternoon at HRL
and BRO. Southeasterly flow with gusts around 20-25 kts this
afternoon should diminish to 10 kts overnight. Low level moisture
may lead to temporary ceiling drops to MVFR overnight into Monday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Tonight through next Sunday...Gentle to moderate southeasterly flow
and relatively low seas will prevail over the period. Through
Wednesday, low chances (less than 30%) exist every day for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms as troughing transits
westward towards the Texas coast. By Wednesday night, chances of
rain are expected to decrease to less than 10% for the end of the
week and through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  91  79  92 /   0  10  10  20
HARLINGEN               75  93  76  93 /   0  20  10  20
MCALLEN                 78  95  78  95 /   0  20   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  94  76  94 /   0  10   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  86  80  87 /   0  10  20  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  90  77  91 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK