


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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184 FXUS64 KBRO 080324 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1024 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 An inverted mid-level trough of low pressure currently over the central Gulf of America will gradually retrograde into Mexico during the period. This weakness, combined with precipitable water values that will hover near two inches, will result in isolated to scattered convection across the BRO CWFA. The likely scenario will be streamer convection over the lower Texas coastal waters at night, followed by showers and thunderstorms that will develop inland during the heating of the day and gradually migrate from east to west. Temperature-wise, the opportunity for rainfall and the associated cloud cover will hold daytime highs at near normal levels. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 With the above-mentioned 500 mb weakness inland over Mexico (eventually transitioning over the Pacific Ocean), and mid-level high pressure nosing into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the east, generally dry weather will prevail through the period. However, one issue that may reintroduce convection into this portion of the total forecast at a later time will be precipitable water values, which never significantly fall too far below two inches. Regarding temperatures, near normal daytime highs will be maintained, with the 500 mb high in proximity to the region but not overly oppressive. Despite relatively ample atmospheric moisture, these values will not support any threat of a Heat Advisory. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Winds will diminish for the overnight hours before becoming moderate on Tuesday. The next TAF issuance later tonight may need to include a TEMPO for convection based on the HRRR model. && .MARINE... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 High pressure over the western Gulf of America will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not anticipated to be needed. (Thursday through next Tuesday) High pressure over the western Gulf of America will interact with thermal low pressure that will strengthen and persist over inland Mexico. This will produce generally moderate winds and seas along the Lower Texas Coast during the period. Although Small Craft Advisory is not likely to be needed, Small Craft Should Exercise cannot be entirely ruled out due to winds, especially for the Laguna Madre. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 92 78 92 / 10 30 10 30 HARLINGEN 76 94 75 94 / 10 30 10 30 MCALLEN 79 96 78 96 / 0 30 0 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 95 76 95 / 0 20 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 87 79 87 / 20 20 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 91 77 91 / 10 30 10 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT and LONG TERM...Tomaselli-66 GRAPHICS/RADAR/UPPER AIR...Hallman-56