


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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961 FXUS64 KBRO 061743 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1243 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The vorticity max in central TX slowly dissipating, meandering south and bringing a low (10%) chance of showers to the western CWA this afternoon. However, showers associated with the sea breeze are still in the cards Sunday afternoon with a 20% or less chance. Low pressure over the eastern Gulf will slowly translate west, weakening any subsidence provided by the overall ridging pattern and will maintain these slightly elevated PoPs through midweek (20-30%). There is also a chance of sea breeze shower activity each afternoon through midweek. Cloud cover will keep temperatures near normal through midweek, with highs in the upper 80s along the coast to mid 90s inland. Little change to low temperatures, mid 70s to around 80 nearer the coast. There is a Low Risk of rip currents at local beaches early this week. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Midweek, the aforementioned troughing over the Gulf will begin to fill and ridging will begin to dominate the pattern. Subsidence aloft and clearing skies will keep rain chances below 10% and allow for a warming trend. Temperatures return to normal in the mid 90s to near 100 in the Rio Grande Plains, and overnight in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday and into the weekend, apparent temperatures each afternoon will climb into the upper 100s, with highest values possible in Kenedy County along I-69E. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Primarily VFR at all sites through the period. Low chance (<20%) of showers associated with the sea breeze this afternoon at HRL and BRO. Southeasterly flow with gusts around 20-25 kts this afternoon should diminish to 10 kts overnight. Low level moisture may lead to temporary ceiling drops to MVFR overnight into Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Tonight through next Sunday...Gentle to moderate southeasterly flow and relatively low seas will prevail over the period. Through Wednesday, low chances (less than 30%) exist every day for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as troughing transits westward towards the Texas coast. By Wednesday night, chances of rain are expected to decrease to less than 10% for the end of the week and through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 91 79 92 / 0 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 75 93 76 93 / 0 20 10 20 MCALLEN 78 95 78 95 / 0 20 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 94 76 94 / 0 10 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 80 87 / 0 10 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 77 91 / 0 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...69-HK