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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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565 FXUS64 KBRO 141936 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 236 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Midlevel ridging over the region remains the dominant weather driver for the short term period, which will lead to mostly dry conditions across Deep South Texas. With that said, PWATs across eastern portions of the CWA remain elevated which will could lead to a few isolated showers/thunderstorms along the sea breeze this afternoon. Moisture will wain a bit tonight before increasing again on Thursday leading to another chance of showers/thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon along the sea breeze. Rain chances remain under 25 percent today and under 15 percent for Thursday. Warm temperatures continue to be a mainstay across the CWA with temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for Deep South Texas (away from the islands) for heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees today. Similar Heat Indices are expected for Thursday with few locations reaching 111 degrees for a short period both days. A Special Weather Statement will be needed for Thursday, with a Heat Advisory possible. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Broad upper level ridging across the southern US is expected to build north along the Rocky Mountains this weekend as a trough digs across the eastern US. The ridge will then shift further east early next week, becoming centered over the Central Plains. Subsidence aloft will likely result in fairly dry mid levels, keeping rain chances near zero for inland areas. However, the possibility of isolated shower or thunderstorm developing along the sea breeze each afternoon cant be ruled out. At the surface, high pressure looks to remain in control across the Gulf of Mexico through the period. Winds will likely remain southerly to southeasterly, supporting continued moisture transport through the period. Heat will continue to be the primary concern through the period, with high temperatures in the upper 90s near the coast and low 100s elsewhere. Heat indices look to range from 111-115 over the eastern third of the CWA each afternoon, with Heat Advisories and Special Weather Statements likely needed each afternoon. Low temperatures look to range from the mid 70s to low 80s through the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds win remain moderate this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts. This evening winds will calm to 5 kt or less becoming variable at HRL and BRO. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Tonight through Thursday night...Generally favorable conditions will continue on the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through the period. Southeasterly winds will remain light with seas of 1 to 3 feet. Streamer showers and/or isolated thunderstorms will be possible throughout the period that could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas. Friday through next Wednesday...Favorable marine conditions are expected to continue through the period. Surface high pressure across the Gulf will continue to support light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and slight seas through the period. Streamer showers or isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the period, especially during the late night to early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 96 81 96 / 0 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 77 97 77 98 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 80 102 80 102 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 79 101 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 84 91 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 79 94 / 0 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...68