565
FXUS64 KBRO 141936
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
236 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Midlevel ridging over the region remains the dominant weather driver
for the short term period, which will lead to mostly dry conditions
across Deep South Texas. With that said, PWATs across eastern
portions of the CWA remain elevated which will could lead to a few
isolated showers/thunderstorms along the sea breeze this afternoon.
Moisture will wain a bit tonight before increasing again on Thursday
leading to another chance of showers/thunderstorms, mainly in the
afternoon along the sea breeze. Rain chances remain under 25 percent
today and under 15 percent for Thursday.

Warm temperatures continue to be a mainstay across the CWA with
temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s. A Special Weather Statement
has been issued for Deep South Texas (away from the islands) for
heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees today. Similar Heat Indices
are expected for Thursday with few locations reaching 111 degrees
for a short period both days. A Special Weather Statement will be
needed for Thursday, with a Heat Advisory possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Broad upper level ridging across the southern US is expected to
build north along the Rocky Mountains this weekend as a trough
digs across the eastern US. The ridge will then shift further east
early next week, becoming centered over the Central Plains.
Subsidence aloft will likely result in fairly dry mid levels,
keeping rain chances near zero for inland areas. However, the
possibility of isolated shower or thunderstorm developing along
the sea breeze each afternoon cant be ruled out.

At the surface, high pressure looks to remain in control across
the Gulf of Mexico through the period. Winds will likely remain
southerly to southeasterly, supporting continued moisture
transport through the period.

Heat will continue to be the primary concern through the period,
with high temperatures in the upper 90s near the coast and low 100s
elsewhere. Heat indices look to range from 111-115 over the
eastern third of the CWA each afternoon, with Heat Advisories and
Special Weather Statements likely needed each afternoon. Low
temperatures look to range from the mid 70s to low 80s through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southeasterly
winds win remain moderate this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts.
This evening winds will calm to 5 kt or less becoming variable at
HRL and BRO.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Tonight through Thursday night...Generally favorable conditions will
continue on the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through the period.
Southeasterly winds will remain light with seas of 1 to 3 feet.
Streamer showers and/or isolated thunderstorms will be possible
throughout the period that could lead to locally enhanced winds and
seas.

Friday through next Wednesday...Favorable marine conditions are
expected to continue through the period. Surface high pressure
across the Gulf will continue to support light to moderate
easterly to southeasterly winds and slight seas through the
period. Streamer showers or isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible through the period, especially during the late night to
early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  96  81  96 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               77  97  77  98 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 80 102  80 102 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         78 101  79 101 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  90  84  91 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  94  79  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...68