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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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191 FXUS64 KBRO 152346 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 646 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A broad upper-level ridge across the southern US will remain the dominant feature through the short term period. The ridge will gradually build north along the Rocky Mountains as an upper-level trough moves across the Midwest. Southerly to southeasterly surface flow will help maintain higher surface moisture values, supporting PWATs between 1.8 and 2 Friday afternoon and CAPE values above 1500 J/kg. However, drier mid level flow and a weak CAP will limit the potential for convection, and keep PoPs below 15%. Some isolated convection along the sea breeze cant be ruled out, however most guidance is keeping the area rain-free through the period. The primary concern will continue to be heat, with high temperatures Friday afternoon in the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat indices are expected to top out around 111 Friday afternoon, with a few areas briefly reaching 113-115. A Heat Advisory or Special Weather Statement will likely be needed for eastern portions of the CWA. Low temperatures tonight and Friday night are expected to be in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The long term forecast will feature near to slightly above normal temperatures, triple-digit heat indices, and generally rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas. Summer is here to stay, at least through next week, as mid/upper level ridging centered over the Desert Southwest and Texas continue to influence the region. Additionally, low level easterly to southeasterly flow will maintain elevated dew points, which will maintain humid conditions through next week. High temperatures each afternoon will range from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100-103 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with the humidity, heat indices will range from 105-113 degrees each afternoon. There is a moderate to major risk of heat-related illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations. If spending any time outdoors, be sure to take adequate breaks in the shade and stay hydrated to prevent any heat illnesses. Precipitation chances will be fairly limited due to strong subsidence associated with the ridge, but an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out as the sea breeze moves inland each day. Increased cloud cover could provide some brief relief from the heat, but should be short-lived as any convection dissipates through the afternoon hours. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 General VFR conditions to persist tonight through Friday. Mostly clear with light winds tonight are expected with a medium chance (40-50%) of SCT to brief broken VFR cumulus deck developing mid- morning Friday. Convection probability is low (10 percent) for an isolated shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze front anytime between 16-20Z. Southeast winds pick up slightly Friday afternoon with occasional gusts of 18-20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Tonight through Friday night...Favorable marine conditions are expected to continue through the short term period. High pressure over the Gulf will continue to support light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and slight seas. A few streamer showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm could develop through the period, which could result in locally higher winds and seas. Saturday through next Thursday...Generally favorable conditions will prevail as surface high pressure and mid/upper level riding continue to influence the region. Expect light to moderate winds and low seas through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 96 80 96 / 0 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 77 98 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 80 102 80 102 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 83 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 78 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....22-Garcia AVIATION...59-GB