191
FXUS64 KBRO 152346 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
646 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A broad upper-level ridge across the southern US will remain the
dominant feature through the short term period. The ridge will
gradually build north along the Rocky Mountains as an upper-level
trough moves across the Midwest.  Southerly to southeasterly surface
flow will help maintain higher surface moisture values, supporting
PWATs between 1.8 and 2 Friday afternoon and CAPE values above
1500 J/kg. However, drier mid level flow and a weak CAP will limit
the potential for convection, and keep PoPs below 15%. Some isolated
convection along the sea breeze cant be ruled out, however most
guidance is keeping the area rain-free through the period.

The primary concern will continue to be heat, with high temperatures
Friday afternoon in the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat indices are
expected to top out around 111 Friday afternoon, with a few areas
briefly reaching 113-115. A Heat Advisory or Special Weather
Statement will likely be needed for eastern portions of the CWA. Low
temperatures tonight and Friday night are expected to be in the mid
70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The long term forecast will feature near to slightly above normal
temperatures, triple-digit heat indices, and generally rain-free
conditions across Deep South Texas. Summer is here to stay, at
least through next week, as mid/upper level ridging centered over
the Desert Southwest and Texas continue to influence the region.
Additionally, low level easterly to southeasterly flow will
maintain elevated dew points, which will maintain humid conditions
through next week. High temperatures each afternoon will range
from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100-103
degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with the
humidity, heat indices will range from 105-113 degrees each
afternoon. There is a moderate to major risk of heat-related
illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations. If spending any
time outdoors, be sure to take adequate breaks in the shade and
stay hydrated to prevent any heat illnesses.

Precipitation chances will be fairly limited due to strong
subsidence associated with the ridge, but an isolated thunderstorm
or two cannot be ruled out as the sea breeze moves inland each
day. Increased cloud cover could provide some brief relief from
the heat, but should be short-lived as any convection dissipates
through the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

General VFR conditions to persist tonight through Friday. Mostly
clear with light winds tonight are expected with a medium chance
(40-50%) of SCT to brief broken VFR cumulus deck developing mid-
morning Friday. Convection probability is low (10 percent) for
an isolated shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze front
anytime between 16-20Z. Southeast winds pick up slightly Friday
afternoon with occasional gusts of 18-20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Favorable marine conditions are
expected to continue through the short term period. High pressure
over the Gulf will continue to support light to moderate southerly
to southeasterly winds and slight seas. A few streamer showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm could develop through the period,
which could result in locally higher winds and seas.

Saturday through next Thursday...Generally favorable conditions
will prevail as surface high pressure and mid/upper level riding
continue to influence the region. Expect light to moderate winds
and low seas through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  96  80  96 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               77  98  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 80 102  80 102 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         79 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  90  83  90 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  94  78  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...59-GB