Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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169 FXUS64 KBRO 152324 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 624 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The subtropical ridge is dominant over the Gulf this afternoon. High pressure at the surface has the low level from the south to southeast and a warm, moist airmass is in place across the CWA. The upper ridge is suppressing convection this afternoon. Little change is expected during the short term. Southerly to southeasterly flow will keep the warm, moist air in place and the upper ridge will prevent any convection. Low temperatures will be about what they were this morning and highs Tuesday will be similar to today. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 An upper level ridge over the western U.S. will build well north into Canada. This amplification will send a strong shortwave trough south along on the western side of the main trough over the Mississippi Valley reaching the base of the trough and the NW Gulf of Mexico by Friday. A second shortwave trough will amplify this feature farther southwest through Texas Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will move into Central Texas Thursday with the latest model suite maintaining this boundary over Texas Friday and Saturday with a further nudge southwest through Texas Sunday. Model trends increase rain chances Thursday through Sunday as low to mid-level moisture, weak forcing and daytime instability south of the front support low rain chances each afternoon. Model guidance maintains a steady state near normal temperature range through the weekend with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. Low temperatures look to remain in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the next 24 hours. Southeast winds between 10 to 15 kts early this evening will decrease to less than 10 kts after sunset. Wind speeds will increase above 10 kts by late morning Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Tonight through Monday Night...Surface high pressure over the US southeast will provide favorable marine conditions through Monday night. With the light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas, there are currently no expected adverse or hazardous conditions expected. Tuesday through Sunday...Surface high pressure to remain anchored over the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday-Sunday. A weak to occasional moderate pressure gradient supports light to moderate winds and slight seas. Isolated showers/Thunderstorms Tuesday-Thursday become scattered Friday-Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 93 80 93 / 0 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 76 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 79 97 80 97 / 0 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 97 79 97 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 82 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 79 92 / 0 10 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05-EWX LONG TERM....05-EWX AVIATION...63-KC