125
FXUS64 KBRO 160739
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
239 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

High pressure remains generally in control through the short term
period, with the mid-level ridge slightly pivoting west to settle
across the Four Corners mid-week. This allows weaker pressure and
slightly increasing moisture to begin to work into Deep South Texas
as early as Wednesday afternoon. NBM has brought non-zero POPs
across offshore waters Wednesday morning and hints at POPs inland
along the sea breeze Wednesday afternoon, remaining below 15
percent. An isolated shower or storm cant be ruled out, but most
locations will likely remain dry. Temperatures remain seasonal in
the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

An upper-level ridge over the western US will build north into
Canada while an upper level trough over the eastern US and
Mississippi Valley digs south Thursday. A shortwave moving through
the western edge of the trough will further amplify the
southwestern extent of the trough Friday. A second shortwave looks
to further amplify the trough on Sunday, extending it into
Central Texas. At the surface, a cold front looks to push into
Central Texas on Thursday before stalling to the north of the
CWA. The front then looks to slowly recede north over the weekend.
To the south of the front, ample moisture, diurnal instability,
and weak forcing will foster rain chances around 15-20% Thursday,
Friday, and Saturday afternoons. Forcing is expected to increase
Sunday, with the arrival of the second shortwave, supporting
higher rain chances Sunday and Monday afternoons. The best rain
chances look to be Monday, peaking at 30-40%.

Model guidance continues to support near normal temperatures
through the period, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Heat indices are expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria.
Low temperatures look to remain in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
with a southeast breeze this afternoon to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Today through Wednesday...High pressure gradually works east across
the Gulf of Mexico through the short term, maintaining light to
moderate southeasterly onshore flow and low seas through mid-week.
Isolated streamer showers or thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
morning, mainly offshore or briefly along the sea breeze near the
coast.

Wednesday night through Monday...Surface high pressure is expected
to remain over the Northern Gulf through the period. A weak
pressure gradient along the coast will support light to moderate
winds, and slight seas through Monday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday through Saturday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  81  94  80 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               95  77  95  76 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 97  80  97  79 /  10   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         97  79  97  77 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  83  88  82 /   0   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  79  92  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...56